林业经济问题2026，Vol.46Issue(3)：259-269,11.DOI:10.16832/j.cnki.1005-9709.20260139
基于SAOM模型的中国北方地区森林碳汇空间关联网络动态演化研究
Dynamic Evolution of Spatial Correlation Networks of Forest Carbon Sinks in Northern China Based on the SAOM Model
摘要
Abstract
⑴ Background——Forests constitute the largest carbon pool in terrestrial ecosystems,and their carbon sinks function plays an irreplaceable role in offsetting industrial carbon emissions and mitigating the rising atmos-pheric carbon dioxide concentration.The forest area in Northern China accounts for over 40%of the country's to-tal forest area,holding a pivotal position in the national total forest carbon sinks.Existing studies mostly focus on the conceptual definitions,measurement methods,driving factors and welfare effects of forest carbon sinks,while neglecting the network correlation of forest carbon sinks.Research on the structural characteristics,evolutionary mechanisms and driving factors of carbon sinks spatial networks is still relatively scarce. ⑵ Methods——Based on the existing research,this paper constructed a carbon sinks gravity model to characterize the intensity of inter-provincial carbon sinks linkages.Adopting the Stochastic Actor-Oriented Model(SAOM),it systematically analyzed the structural characteristics,evolutionary process and internal driving mechanisms of the forest carbon sinks spatial network covering 15 provinces(municipalities and autonomous re-gions)in Northern China from 2008 to 2023.The research data were mainly sourced from the"China Forest Re-sources Inventory Reports","China Forestry Statistical Yearbooks","China Statistical Yearbooks",and the statistical yearbooks of each province. ⑶ Results——First,the spatial correlation network of forest carbon sinks in Northern China exhibits the characteristics of"overall closeness and local agglomeration".The rate of network structural change has acceler-ated remarkably,presenting a complex form with multiple centers and hierarchical levels.Second,the network e-volution is jointly dominated by endogenous structural dynamics and spatial proximity.Both the reciprocity effect and the transitive trip lets effect are significantly positive,indicating that two-way coordination and trust transmis-sion constitute the core mechanism of network self-organization.The provinces with similar carbon sinks capacity are less likely to establish network connections.Spatial proximity acts as a critical exogenous factor driving the network evolution.Industrial structure similarity and the scale of afforestation investment show no significant di-rect impact.Third,significant differentiation has occurred in core nodes and bridge roles.The network core has e-volved from a unipolar pattern dominated solely by Heilongjiang to a multipolar pattern involving Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning and Inner Mongolia,while the participation degree of peripheral provinces remains rather limited. ⑷ Conclusions and Discussions——First,Promote the establishment of a regional carbon sinks coordi-nation mechanism.Build a regular carbon sinks cooperation mechanism within the three major agglomeration are-as of Northeast China,North China,and Northwest China,launch special carbon sinks cooperation programs and encourage two-way exchanges and technology sharing among different regions.Second,strengthen the dual driv-ing forces of reciprocity transmission and geographical proximity.Prioritize the advancement of two-way reciprocal agreements in inter-provincial carbon sinks cooperation.Encourage provinces with established cooperative rela-tions to actively introduce their partners into the collaborative network.Establish"carbon sinks coordination cir-cles"by taking geographically adjacent provinces as basic units.Third,adopt a differentiated support strategies.Grant policy preferences to core nodes and support them in undertaking the construction of cross-provincial car-bon sinks capacity.Increase the interconnection and talent training of carbon sinks trading platforms.Support pe-ripheral provinces in constructing carbon sinks monitoring systems.关键词
森林碳汇/随机行动者导向模型/网络演化/修正引力模型Key words
forest carbon sinks/Stochastic Actor-Oriented Model/network evolution/modified gravity model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
郭润桐,韩冬日..基于SAOM模型的中国北方地区森林碳汇空间关联网络动态演化研究[J].林业经济问题,2026,46(3):259-269,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(25FGLB114) （25FGLB114）
