林业科学2026，Vol.62Issue(7)：88-99,12.DOI:10.11707/j.1001-7488.LYKX20250725
中国北方半干旱区优势树种适生候选区对400 mm等降水线北移的响应(2000-2024年)
Candidate Suitable Habitats for Dominant Tree Species in Semi-Arid Regions of Northern China in Response the Northward Shift of the 400 mm Precipitation Isoline(2000-2024)
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]This study aims to reveal the responses of dominant afforestation tree species in the semi-arid northern region of China to the northward shift of the 400 mm isoline by constructing an afforestation optimization framework that integrates temperature thresholds,root stratification,and risk zoning,thereby providing scientific support for ecological restoration projects under the influence of climate change.[Method]A kernel normalized difference vegetation index(kNDVI)time series was constructed based on MOD13Q1 v6.1 data(2000-2024).The Theil-Sen slope was combined with Mann-Kendall(MK)test to quantify the northward migration characteristics of the 400 mm isoline.Random forest and partial dependence plot analyses were employed to extract the optimal photosynthetic temperature windows(21.2-22.3℃)of the dominant afforestation tree species of Pinus tabuliformis,Pinus sylvestris var.mongolica,and Caragana korshinskii in semi-arid northern China.The attribution of layered soil moisture content and cross-correlation function were used to calculate the lag response time of the dominant tree species to precipitation and their temperature sensitivity,which were then integrated with the precipitation-belt migration rates to construct the forestry risk index(RFI).[Result]1)The centroid of the 400 mm isoline significantly shifted northward at a rate of 3.89 km·a-1,resulting in a 119.7%expansion of candidate suitable areas for P.tabuliformis,a 27.5%expansion for P.sylvestris var.mongolica,and an 8.1%contraction for C.korshinskii.2)The optimal temperature zones for the kNDVI index of the dominant tree species were 23.1-23.8℃for P.tabuliformis,19.4-19.5℃for P.sylvestris var.mongolica,and 23.0-23.6℃for C.korshinskii.Combined with partial dependence curve analysis,it was found that when temperatures exceeded 25℃,the kNDVI index declined by-11.03%,-10.54%,and-13.55%,respectively.3)The spatial partitioning accuracy of RFI reached 89%,identifying high-risk areas,moderate-risk areas,and low-risk areas accounting for 12.3%,27.5%,and 60.2%of the total study area,respectively.Subsequently,differentiated afforestation strategies and recommendations were proposed for different risk zones.[Conclusion]This study has clarified the sensitivity of P.tabuliformis and P.sylvestris var.mongolica to high temperatures and soil moisture in 0-1 m layer,as well as the drought-resistance characteristics of C.korshinskii conferred by its deep root system.A differentiated regional afforestation strategy is constructed based on the"temperature threshold-root stratification-risk zoning"framework,providing scientific basis and practical pathways for ecological restoration project construction and forest regeneration in the semi-arid northern region of China.关键词
降水带迁移/根系分层/温度阈值/林业风险指数/优势树种Key words
precipitation belt shift/root stratification/temperature threshold/forestry risk index(RFI)/dominant tree species分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
魏光普,张文君,刘璐,于晓燕,张舒宇..中国北方半干旱区优势树种适生候选区对400 mm等降水线北移的响应(2000-2024年)[J].林业科学,2026,62(7):88-99,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32560385) （32560385）
内蒙古自治区一流学科科研专项基金项目(YLXKZX-NKD-025) （YLXKZX-NKD-025）
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF1303700) （2023YFF1303700）
内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2025SHZR2380,2025QN05035). （2025SHZR2380,2025QN05035）
