南方建筑Issue(6)：23-31,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-0232.2026.06.003
博弈过程视角下房地产导向的广州城中村改造困局
The Dilemma of Property-oriented Urban Village Reconstruction in Guangzhou from the Perspective of the Game Process
摘要
Abstract
With the increasingly prominent conflict between land resource supply and demand,the policy of"Reconstruction of Old Town Areas,Old Plants,and Old Villages"was issued in Guangdong Province in 2009 to improve land use efficiency,and the"property-oriented"land redevelopment was widely accepted as the mainstream reconstruction mode of urban villages in Guangzhou.Nevertheless,many comprehensive reconstruction projects of urban villages initiated during periods of real estate market expansion have encountered significant delays.This raises a critical question:what are the underlying mechanisms and key challenges that lead a model theoretically capable of generating substantial value appreciation to be trapped in a dilemma during implementation? A case study based on Village C in Baiyun District,Guangzhou,was conducted.Village C has experienced both market fluctuations and policy evolution.To answer the above questions,the gaming process in Village C over 16 years was analyzed using documents from government sectors and village collectives,and over 50 interviews with 31 stakeholders involved in the reconstruction.The findings reveal that the fundamental cause of the reconstruction dilemma lies in the conflict between the economic logic of real estate development and the governance logic of multi-actor gaming.The property-oriented urban village reconstruction relies on capturing land value appreciation as its economic premise.However,the financial equilibrium model is easily disrupted by the extension of the reconstruction period and changes in market conditions due to the dynamic complexity of"two-way interest gaming"in practice. External gaming occurs between the village collective,the government,and developers to define expected land value gains and delineate the boundaries of their respective interests.The diverse demands of these three parties,along with dynamic changes,make it difficult to reach a stable agreement.Shifts in government roles and policies are decisive contingent factors.In Village C,the village collective,government,and developers negotiated many times over planning and economic data.It took six years to culminate in the formal approval of the reconstruction plan,amid policy changes during the Asian Games and post-Asian Games periods.Conversely,internal gaming among different levels of collective economic organizations and individual villagers further shapes the delineation of internal interest boundaries and directly constrains project implementation.Adjustments in benefit distribution often generate shocks that turn the imbalance in villagers'adaptation in traditional communities into conflicts.Village C strengthened the balanced distribution of benefits between two levels of collective economic organizations over the years,thereby enabling it to overcome internal resistance.Perceptions and demands differ among collective members,and social networks constrained their behaviors.As a result,it took four years to complete the collective decision-making process,triggering resistance from holdout households. This complex and evolving gaming structure significantly prolongs the reconstruction process,thereby missing favorable market windows and becoming trapped in financial distress.When Village C initiated reconstruction in 2009,the real estate market was on an upward trajectory,and,according to the planning scheme,land values would increase by more than ninefold after the reconstruction.However,the project encountered a market downturn in 2022 after repeated negotiations and the eventual involvement of developers,leading to stagnation and reliance on external intervention for revival.The study concludes that beyond maintaining financial balance,urban village reconstruction should place greater emphasis on optimizing governance strategies,reducing transaction costs through institutional design,and managing and mitigating financial risks.Unlike the static structured game analysis,this research established a multi-level gaming framework that identified refined stakeholder groups and gaming mechanisms,and revealed the process mechanism and key problems arising from the property-oriented reconstruction dilemma in Guangzhou's urban villages.However,this study has a limited understanding of the extrapolation of verifiable case-study conclusions and of market actors'decision-making mechanisms.关键词
城中村改造/房地产导向/博弈过程/改造困局/广州市Key words
urban village reconstruction/property-oriented/game process/reconstruction dilemma/Guangzhou分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
贾姗,袁奇峰..博弈过程视角下房地产导向的广州城中村改造困局[J].南方建筑,2026,(6):23-31,9.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(21&ZD175):中国特色郊区社区社会形态研究 （21&ZD175）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52478052):粤港澳大湾区城乡混杂地区国土空间规划技术优化研究 （52478052）
华南理工大学中央高校基本科研业务费培育项目(XHJH202514) （XHJH202514）
Erasmus+/KA1 HIGHER EDUCATION(2020_PC_318403). （2020_PC_318403）
