南京师范大学学报（工程技术版）2026，Vol.26Issue(2)：66-75,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-1292.2026.02.008
基于土地利用变化的盐城海岸带水鸟生境质量评价及多情景模拟
Habitat Quality Assessment and Multi-Scenario Simulation of Waterbird in Yancheng Coastal Zone Based on Land Use Changes
摘要
Abstract
Human activities influence land use change.And the spatio-temporal pattern evolution of habitat quality under the influence of land use change is of great significance for the conservation of regional waterbird diversity.This study takes Yancheng coastal zone as an example,bases on the spatial data of land use from 1987 to 2022,comprehensively considers the natural and human driving factors,applies ecological control zoning,controls the conversion rate,and builds a CA-Markov model for different development scenarios.Thus,the changes in the land use spatial pattern of the study area under different scenarios in 2034 are simulated,and the spatial distribution characteristics of waterbird habitat quality from 1987 to 2034 are quantitatively analyzed.The results show that:(1)During the study period,among the land use types in the Yancheng coastal zone,the cultivated land area accounts for the highest proportion.A large amount of salt pans are converted into aquaculture ponds.The area of natural wetlands decreases by 35.30%,the area of artificial wetlands increases by 40.00%,and the area of non-wetlands increases by 33.60%.(2)The waterbird habitat quality in the Yancheng coastal zone shows a decreasing trend year by year with a gradually slowing speed in time.In space,it forms the spatial differentiation feature of descending from sea to land.The patches tend to be fragmented and homogenized,and the habitat quality is closely related to the distribution of land use types.(3)By adding ecological control zoning and changing the transition probability matrix of land use change in different zones,and then scenarios of inertial development,high-speed development,and ecological protection are set.The proportions of the sum of high and higher grades of waterbird habitat quality are 23.94%,22.68%,and 31.14%respectively.It indicates that implementing ecological protection policies needs to consider the land use demands of different regions,strengthen the restraint on urban expansion,and adjust the land use structure to improve land use efficiency.The research results can provide basic data support for the conservation and ecological restoration of waterbird diversity in the coastal zone and provide decision-making ideas and multiple perspectives for the national land space planning under different development goal orientations.关键词
水鸟生境质量/盐城海岸带/InVEST模型/CA-Markov模型/情景模拟Key words
habitat quality of waterbird/Yancheng coastal zone/InVEST model/CA-Markov model/scenario simulation分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
李琳,李玉凤,贾悦,吴涵,苏孟园,周永,刘红玉,彭模..基于土地利用变化的盐城海岸带水鸟生境质量评价及多情景模拟[J].南京师范大学学报（工程技术版）,2026,26(2):66-75,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32571842). （32571842）
