内蒙古电力技术2026，Vol.44Issue(3)：71-80,10.DOI:10.19929/j.cnki.nmgdljs.2026.0034
基于组合赋权-改进云模型的广西新型电力系统气候韧性评估与耦合协调分析
Climate Resilience Assessment and Coupling Coordination Analysis of New Power System in Guangxi Based on Combined Weighting-Improved Cloud Model
摘要
Abstract
In response to the impact of climate change on the new power system,this paper constructs a climate resilience assessment index system for the new power system of Guangxi based on the pressure-state-response(PSR)model.It uses a combination of entropy weight,objective weighting value,and analytic hierarchy process(AHP)to determine the weight,applies Beta distribution quantiles to classify resilience levels,improves the cloud model to correct boundary deviations,and analyzes the synergistic effects of its subsystems through coupling coordination degree.Research shows that from 2015 to 2022,the climate resilience index of the new power system in Guangxi changed from 0.534 2 to 0.694 7,maintaining a relatively high level of resilience.In 2020,it reached a peak of 0.727,mainly due to the expansion of renewable energy installed capacity.The pressure subsystem remains constrained by population growth and extreme climate,while the state subsystem improves significantly due to the increased proportion of non-hydro renewable energy.The response subsystem is affected by policy implementation delays.The coupling coordination degree is maintained at primary coordination,reflecting the strong subsystem interactions.It is recommended to enhance the climate resilience of systems with a high proportion of renewable energy through measures such as optimizing energy supply models and strengthening energy storage infrastructure.关键词
新型电力系统/组合赋权法/压力-状态-响应模型/气候韧性/改进云模型/耦合协调度Key words
new power system/combined weighting method/pressure-state-response(PSR)model/climate resilience/improved cloud model/coupling coordination degree分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
刘镇铭,徐庆娟,黄鑫瑶..基于组合赋权-改进云模型的广西新型电力系统气候韧性评估与耦合协调分析[J].内蒙古电力技术,2026,44(3):71-80,10.基金项目
广西自治区级大学生创新创业训练计划项目"基于PSR模型的广西新型电力系统气候韧性评估研究"(S202410603031) （S202410603031）
