农业大数据学报2026，Vol.8Issue(2)：163-173,11.DOI:10.19788/j.issn.2096-6369.000118
基于时间序列分析模型的贵州省金针菇价格预测研究
Research on the Prediction of Enoki Mushroom Prices in Guizhou Province Based on Time Series Analysis Models
摘要
Abstract
Accurate short-term price forecasting is crucial for the edible mushroom market in our country,and the fluctuation of common edible mushroom prices has a profound impact on the income and quality of life of mushroom farmers.This study takes the price of golden mushrooms in Guizhou Province as an example,applies the ARIMA model,AR model,and STL seasonal decomposition method,based on the historical price data of golden mushrooms in Guizhou Province,through exploratory data analysis,parameter optimization,and model verification,it deeply explores the impact of climate,season,and economic indicators on prices.The empirical analysis results show that the model built in this study can accurately predict the trend of edible mushroom prices,providing a scientific basis for market supply and demand regulation and production planning,and promoting the healthy development of the edible mushroom industry and the increase of farmers'income.关键词
金针菇价格/时间序列/ARIMA模型/STL季节性分解方法Key words
enoki mushroom price/time series/ARIMA model/STL seasonal decomposition approach引用本文复制引用
付芳婧,唐辟如,崔蕾,冷海燕..基于时间序列分析模型的贵州省金针菇价格预测研究[J].农业大数据学报,2026,8(2):163-173,11.基金项目
贵州省气象局省市联合基金项目《贵州省辣椒价格预测模型研究》(黔气科合SS[2023]19号) （黔气科合SS[2023]19号）
贵州省气象局省市联合基金项目《贵州省粮油类产品价格预警指标研究》(黔气科合SS[2023]18号) （黔气科合SS[2023]18号）
贵州省气象局创新团队"农业气象服务关键技术研究"(黔气科合TD[2024]6号). （黔气科合TD[2024]6号）
