排灌机械工程学报2026，Vol.44Issue(6)：620-627,648,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8530.25.0050
水电机组甩负荷过程参数区间不确定性研究
Study on uncertainty of parameter range in load shedding process of hydropower units
摘要
Abstract
The dynamic response characteristics of hydropower units during load shedding directly affect the safe and stable operation of the hydropower station.Traditional studies have been mainly fo-cused on the use of deterministic theories and models,without fully considering the impact of parameter uncertainties during actual operation.In response to this issue,a modeling method for unit systems based on interval uncertainty analysis was developed and solved using Monte Carlo simulation to reveal the propagation characteristics of unit parameter uncertainties on system responses and to evaluate the system reliability performance of typical parameters under different uncertainty levels.The results show that the uncertainties of upstream and downstream water levels,the unit's flywheel torque,and the in-flow/outflow coefficients of the surge tank have a significant impact on the dynamic response of the unit.Moreover,the coupling effect of multiple uncertain parameters can greatly amplify the uncertainty of the system output response,and may even cause the system to exceed the reliability control limits.These relevant research results enrich the modeling and analysis system for the load-shedding transient process of hydropower units,and provide theoretical and technical guarantee for the safe and stable operation of hydropower units.关键词
水电机组/甩负荷过程/不确定性/过渡过程/动态响应/可靠性Key words
hydropower units/load shedding process/uncertainty/transient process/dynamic response/reliability分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
闫懂林,郑阳,贾鹏伟..水电机组甩负荷过程参数区间不确定性研究[J].排灌机械工程学报,2026,44(6):620-627,648,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52009096) （52009096）
宁夏自然科学基金资助项目(2025AAC030611) （2025AAC030611）
宁夏师范大学校级科研项目高层次人才引进专项(NSDXJGR05) （NSDXJGR05）
