气候变化研究进展2026，Vol.22Issue(3)：288-302,15.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.274
"双碳"目标约束下中国农业生态效率再测算:现状特征、区域差异及改善路径
Re-estimating China's agricultural eco-efficiency under the"Dual Carbon"goals:current characteristics,regional disparities,and improvement pathways
摘要
Abstract
Scientifically and rationally estimating agricultural eco-efficiency under the"Dual Carbon"goals facilitates an accurate assessment of whether agricultural green and low-carbon development is on the expected track.This study constructs a new theoretical framework from three dimensions-resource input,economic benefit,and environmental impact-incorporating both agricultural carbon emissions and carbon sinks as"Dual Carbon"constraints into the evaluation indicator system of agricultural eco-efficiency.Using a super-efficiency SBM-DEA model,we measure the agricultural eco-efficiency of 31 Chinese provinces from 2001 to 2020,analyze its current status and characteristics,and compare the results with those obtained under the traditional framework.The Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition method,Kernel density estimation,and Tobit regression model are employed to examine the sources of spatial disparities,dynamic evolution trends,and influencing factors of agricultural eco-efficiency at the national level and across three major grain functional zones.The findings reveal that:agricultural eco-efficiency estimated under the"Dual Carbon"constraints better reflects the reality of current agricultural production;China's overall agricultural eco-efficiency remains relatively high,yet its declining trend over 2001-2020 should not be overlooked,with the major grain marketing zone maintaining a leading position and provinces with lower eco-efficiency struggling to break out of a vicious cycle;significant regional disparities exist in agricultural eco-efficiency,exhibiting a fluctuating yet narrowing trend overall,with transvariation density contributing the most to spatial differentiation,and the disparity between the major grain marketing zone and the grain production-marketing balance zone being the primary source of inter-regional differences;bipolarization or multi-polarization is observed in agricultural eco-efficiency at the national level,the major grain producing zone,and the grain production-marketing balance zone,while polarization in the major grain marketing zone has notably diminished;the improvement of agricultural eco-efficiency in China and across the three major grain functional zones results from the complex interplay of multiple factors.These findings provide empirical evidence for planning pathways to improve agricultural eco-efficiency.关键词
"双碳"目标/农业生态效率/区域差异/影响因素Key words
"Dual Carbon"targets/Agro-ecological efficiency/Regional differences/Influencing factors引用本文复制引用
杨丽,张晓琴,杨梓,郑香平.."双碳"目标约束下中国农业生态效率再测算:现状特征、区域差异及改善路径[J].气候变化研究进展,2026,22(3):288-302,15.基金项目
宁夏社科规划项目"'双碳'目标下宁夏农业生态效率优化研究"(25NXBYJ01) （25NXBYJ01）
