气候变化研究进展2026，Vol.22Issue(3)：352-368,17.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.265
中国氢能需求的多维动态预测:基于多行业终端消耗的系统动力学建模与区域氢能产业布局研究
Multi-dimensional dynamic forecasting of China's hydrogen demand:a system-dynamics approach to multi-sector end-use modelling and regional hydrogen industry layout
摘要
Abstract
Given the complex and dynamically evolving nature of hydrogen energy development,a medium-to-long-term forecasting model for regional hydrogen demand has been developed based on system dynamics methodology.This model incorporates eight industry-specific subsystems,including synthetic ammonia,methanol,petroleum refining,and steel manufacturing.Key driving factors behind hydrogen energy demand across various industries have been systematically identified and analyzed,encompassing improvements in energy efficiency,technological advancements,policy incentives,and shifts in market demand.By simulating three socioeconomic scenarios,the evolution of total hydrogen demand and structural characteristics was analyzed across China and its seven geographical regions from 2022 to 2060.The results indicate that driven by the development of hydrogen energy and energy transition,national and regional hydrogen demand in China maintains a continuous growth trend.National hydrogen demand will reach 33.94 million to 48.38 million tonnes in 2030 and soar to 110 million to 160 million tonnes in 2060.Under the baseline scenario,demand in 2060 will surge by 391.4％compared with that in 2020.East,North and South China are the core regions for future hydrogen demand,accounting for as high as 56.5％of the total national demand in 2060,with a pronounced regional polarization effect.Meanwhile,the structure of hydrogen demand evolves from chemical industry-oriented to diversified development.Hydrogen demand from traditional industries accounts for over 65％before 2030,while demand from emerging sectors rises after 2040,among which the transportation sector witnesses the most rapid growth,with its share reaching 29.2％in 2060.Distinct disparities exist in regional transformation pathways.Hydrogen demand from emerging sectors in core regions such as East China will surpass that from traditional industries in 2060.Northeast and Northwest China will remain dominated by traditional industries,while the Northwest will see significant growth in power-sector hydrogen consumption due to its renewable energy advantages.The paper concludes by proposing differentiated regional strategies and infrastructure layouts to optimize supply-demand matching and facilitate the low-carbon transition of the energy system.关键词
氢能需求/多行业/七大区域/氢能结构/系统动力学Key words
Hydrogen demand/Multiple industries/Seven regions/Hydrogen structure/System dynamics引用本文复制引用
李茹,鲁雅溪,杨珂嘉..中国氢能需求的多维动态预测:基于多行业终端消耗的系统动力学建模与区域氢能产业布局研究[J].气候变化研究进展,2026,22(3):352-368,17.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(72204030) （72204030）
四川省科技厅科技支撑计划项目(2024NSFSC1082) （2024NSFSC1082）
