气象2026，Vol.52Issue(6)：702-712,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.011301
基于分布式水文模型的潮白河流域"25·7"洪水模拟
Simulation of the July 2025 Flood in Chaobai River Basin Based on Distributed Hydrological Model
摘要
Abstract
In late July 2025,Chaobai River Basin experienced the most serious flood disaster since 1959.In this paper,a flood simulation and forecasting model is developed for Chaobai River Basin based on a dis-tributed hydrological model to retrospectively analyze the characteristics of the July 2025 regional flood in this basin.The Zhangjiafen hydrometrical cross-section of the Baihe River,the Xiahui hydrometrical cross-section of the Chaohe River,and the Putaoyuan hydrometrical cross-section of the Qingshui River are taken for testing hydrological sections,and a basin flood simulation and forecasting model is developed based on GMKHM distributed hydrological model.The GMKHM model adopts hourly precipitation obser-vation data from CMA regional meteorological stations as forcing input,introduces runoff curve numbers and topographic indices to develop a DEM-based over-storage runoff production model,and has a module of recharging deep groundwater added in the calculation of water source separation.The results show that the peak discharge simulation errors are—1.8％and—4.0％respectively for the Zhangjiafen hydrometrical cross-section of the Baihe River and the Xiahui cross-section of the Chaohe River under the GMKHM dis-tributed hydrological model.The model determination coefficient is 0.87 for the Zhangjiafen hydrometrical cross-section and 0.89 for the Xiahui hydrometrical cross-section.For the Putaoyuan hydrometrical cross-section of the Qingshui River,the peak discharge error is 0.9％and the determination coefficient reaches 0.92.Overall,the GMKHM distributed hydrological model performs well in simulating the July 2025 flood event in the Chaobai River Basin.关键词
"25·7"洪水/洪水模拟/分布式水文模型/潮白河流域Key words
the July 2025 flood event/flood simulation/distributed hydrological model/Chaobai River Ba-sin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
包红军,许凤雯,曾思海,王建文,运晓博,林建,张博,李致家,栾承梅,王蒙..基于分布式水文模型的潮白河流域"25·7"洪水模拟[J].气象,2026,52(6):702-712,11.基金项目
全国暴雨研究开放基金(BYKJ2024Z11)、中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025J015)、青海省重大科技专项(2024-SF-A1)、中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放课题(23SWQXM040、23SWQXZ012、23SWQXM039)、国家重点研发计划(2018YFC1508102)、国家自然科学基金项目(41775111)、新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发任务专项(2022B03027-3)、洪涝灾害风险预警与防控应急管理部重点实验室项目(2024-2)和中国气象局流域水文气象预报青年创新团队(CMA2023QN09)共同资助 （BYKJ2024Z11）
