气象科学2026，Vol.46Issue(3)：249-258,10.DOI:10.12306/2025jms.0033
基于Copula函数的江苏省干旱频率特征分析
An analysis of drought frequency in Jiangsu during 1961-2023 based on Copula functions
摘要
Abstract
To comprehensively characterize the multivariate distribution of drought events in Jiangsu Province,this study employed the run theory and the standardized precipitation index to extract drought events from 1961 to 2023 across 67 meteorological stations.The spatiotemporal variations of drought characteristics were investigated,and the optimal Copula functions were selected to construct bivariate joint distributions for drought variables.Three joint return periods under two conditions were calculated.Results indicate that drought events occurred more frequently in most areas of Huaibei,eastern Jianghuai,and parts of southern Jiangsu along the Yangtze River,while fewer events were observed in western Jianghuai and southwestern Jiangsu.The spatial distributions of mean drought severity and duration exhibit similar patterns,with synchronized extreme values appearing during decreasing trends.Statistical analysis revealed that drought duration and severity are significantly correlated at all stations,both following the generalized extreme value distribution.The optimal joint distributions are predominantly characterized by Gumbel-Copula and Frank-Copula functions.Although spatial differences exist in joint return periods under two severity levels,the eastern Huaibei,Jianghuai,and southwestern Jiangsu regions consistently show lower return periods.This suggests that despite fewer drought events,these areas face higher risks of high-severity droughts,necessitating enhanced monitoring and preparedness.关键词
Copula函数/气象干旱/游程理论/重现期/江苏省Key words
Copula function/meteorological drought/run theory/return period/Jiangsu Province分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
徐赫,徐菲菲,张佩,黄秋雨,张晓涵..基于Copula函数的江苏省干旱频率特征分析[J].气象科学,2026,46(3):249-258,10.基金项目
江苏省气象局科研项目(ZD202432) （ZD202432）
江苏省气象局科技项目(KM202303) （KM202303）
江苏省农业气象重点实验室开放基金(JKLAM2302) （JKLAM2302）
