人民长江2026，Vol.57Issue(6)：49-57,9.DOI:10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.06.006
陆水流域雨水情监测预报"三道防线"耦合贯通实践
Practice of coupling and interconnecting"Three Lines of Defense"for rainfall and flood monitoring and forecasting in Lushui River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Under the background of global warming,the increasing frequency of extreme rainstorm-induced floods poses severe challenges to traditional rainfall and water regime monitoring and forecasting systems.Focusing on the Lushui River Basin,a key flood control area in the middle reaches of the Changjiang River,this study established an integrated"sky-space-earth-water-project"monitoring and perception system in the basin,coupling hydrometeorological radar retrieval,rainfall fusion forecasting,rainwater retention capacity assessment,distributed hydrological modeling,hydrodynamic coupling computation,and"forward-re-verse-forward"optimization.The resulting"Three Lines of Defense"framework spans"cloud precipitation-ground rainfall-riverine floods",which realizes full-chain accurate flood forecasting and proactive control.Application of this approach to the 2025 extreme rainfall event showed that it successfully limited the forecast error for the Lushui Reservoir's inflow flood peak to within 3%,achieved a deterministic coefficient of 0.94 for the flood process forecast,and accurately predicted the end time of the heavy precipitation event three hours in advance.By comparing and recommending optimized reservoir operation schemes,it en-sured the safe operation of the Lushui Reservoir.This achievement marks a shift in operational decision-making from passive re-sponse to active judgment,providing robust support for scientific and early decision-making in basin flood control operations.关键词
雨水情监测预报/"三道防线"/水利测雨雷达/防洪调度/陆水流域Key words
rainfall and flood monitoring and forecasting/Three Lines of Defense/hydrometeorological radar/flood regulation and scheduling/Lushui River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张俊,王乐,童冰星,刘鑫,魏猛,钱欣玮..陆水流域雨水情监测预报"三道防线"耦合贯通实践[J].人民长江,2026,57(6):49-57,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(U2340213,U2340205,U2340211) （U2340213,U2340205,U2340211）
湖北省自然科学基金气象创新发展联合基金重点项目(2023AFD094) （2023AFD094）
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200301) （2021YFC3200301）
