西华大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.45Issue(4)：90-97,8.DOI:10.12198/j.issn.1673-159X.5804
基于突变理论的车辆与高速公路护栏碰撞风险评估
Risk Assessment of Vehicle Collisions with Highway Guardrails Based on Catastrophe Theory
摘要
Abstract
To reduce the risk of collision accidents between vehicles and highway guardrails,a risk as-sessment method for vehicle collisions with highway guardrails based on catastrophe theory was proposed.Focusing on five aspects,namely guardrails,vehicles,roads,environment,and management,the risk sources of collisions between vehicles and highway guardrails were identified;an index system with a three-level hierarchical structure was constructed,and an index evaluation model based on catastrophe the-ory was established.By multi-level decomposition of the evaluation targets and calculating the value of the total catastrophe membership function using a normalization formula,this method assessed the collision risk level between vehicles and highway guardrails.The example validation demonstrates that the cata-strophe model can reasonably and effectively assess the target safety risk level.The assessment results are consistent with the actual situation,which provides a new idea for reducing the collision risk between vehicles and highway guardrails.关键词
高速公路/突变理论/护栏/碰撞事故/安全风险评估Key words
highways/catastrophe theory/guardrail:collision accident/safety risk assessment分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
刘禹池,张诗波,罗晶,袁弘,张诚龙,赵成一,王锐..基于突变理论的车辆与高速公路护栏碰撞风险评估[J].西华大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,45(4):90-97,8.基金项目
四川省现代道路行车安全保障工程技术研究中心科研项目(2021-ZD-03). （2021-ZD-03）
