西部人居环境学刊2026，Vol.41Issue(3)：166-172,7.DOI:10.13791/j.cnki.hsfwest.20241007002
国土空间规划体系下蓄洪区村庄土地利用模拟预测
Land use simulation and prediction for villages in flood storage areas under the territorial spatial planning system:A case of villages in the Chengdong Lake Flood Storage Area
摘要
Abstract
Flood storage areas are an important component of China′s river flood control system.They serve both as reservoirs for floodwaters and as living spaces for the local residents.Flood storage areas have achieved remarkable results in storing floodwaters,reducing peak flood levels,and protecting the lives and property.However,the frequent storage of floodwaters leads to difficulties in accumulating wealth in flood storage areas,thereby restricting economic development.As a result,there is an inevitable conflict between the development needs of villages in flood storage areas and the requirements of flood storage.In the context of rural revitalization,it is necessary to use territorial spatial planning to resolve this conflict and to make coordinated arrangements for the land use of villages in flood storage areas.The study takes six villages and a community in the Yu'an District section of the Chengdong Lake Flood Storage Area within the Huaihe River Basin as the study area.Based on the land use data in 2009 and 2022,the PLUS model was used to simulate and verify the land use in the study area in 2022.Furthermore,taking the outcomes of the"Three Zones and Three Lines"demarcation and flood storage safety as the bottom line,and based on natural development scenario,three scenarios were set to predict the quantity and distribution of various land use types in the study area by 2035.It proposes optimization strategies for the land use of villages in flood storage areas under different scenarios,thereby provides guidance for village planning in flood storage areas.The land use and its changes in the study area exhibit typical characteristics of villages in flood storage areas.Land use is primarily for farmland,followed by inland waters,while construction land is concentrated in Baozhuangwei refuge areas and on natural highlands.From 2009 to 2022,there were significant changes in the land use in the study area.The land primarily shifted from being used for construction land purposes to being converted into farmland,as well as garden land,woodland,grassland,and wetland.The PLUS model is suitable for the study area,with an overall accuracy of 88%and a Kappa coefficient of 0.75,indicating a high degree of precision.The PLUS model can take flood storage safety as the bottom line,effectively integrate with the planning target year and the outcomes of the"Three Zones and Three Lines"demarcation of territorial spatial planning.The model performs well in analyzing the driving forces of the expansion of different land use types from 2009 to 2022.The distance to rivers,residential areas,and roads has a significant impact on the expansion of various land use types.The land use simulation and prediction results for the study area by 2035 show a similar overall development trend,with significant differences among the three scenarios.The similarities are reflected in the increase in farmland and other types of land use,as well as the decrease in garden land,woodland,grassland,and wetland,as well as inland waters.The industrial priority scenario gives priority to the supply of construction land,making it suitable for the villages in flood storage areas where the construction land and supporting facilities can serve the surrounding areas and have significant development potential.The flood storage priority scenario ensures the protection of inland waters and other types of land use,making it suitable for the villages in flood storage areas where the majority of the land is below the designed flood storage level and where flood storage is the primary function.The comprehensive development scenario provides balanced land supply,making it suitable for the villages in flood storage areas where both village development and flood storage capabilities are of great importance.Different scenarios correspond to the various development orientations of villages in flood storage areas.The land use simulation and prediction results under the appropriate scenarios can be used to guide the territorial spatial layout of villages in flood storage areas,implement the protection tasks of permanent basic farmland,and locally optimize Urban Development Boundary.The study has conducted a practice on land use simulation and prediction for villages in flood storage areas under the territorial spatial planning system,with the aim of providing a reference for similar practices.关键词
国土空间规划体系/土地利用变化/蓄洪区村庄/PLUS模型/"三区三线"Key words
territorial spatial planning system/land use change/village in flood storage areas/PLUS model/"Three Zones and Three Lines"分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王琳,郝泽强,夏菁..国土空间规划体系下蓄洪区村庄土地利用模拟预测[J].西部人居环境学刊,2026,41(3):166-172,7.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(23&ZD114) （23&ZD114）
教育部人文社会科学研究项目(23YJCZH245) （23YJCZH245）
