世界林业研究2026，Vol.39Issue(1)：114-121,8.DOI:10.13348/j.cnki.sjlyyj.2026.0006.y
《欧盟零毁林法案》对中国输欧木质林产品的影响
Impact of the EUDR on China's Forest Product Trade with the EU
摘要
Abstract
Global forest resources face severe challenges,and the international community has established a series of regulatory frameworks to address illegal logging,including the European Union Timber Regulation(EUTR).However,while the EUTR has given its play to some extent,the difficulties arising in its enforcement fail to fully achieve its objectives,which propels the EU to adopt the European Union Deforestation Regulation(EUDR).Over 20％China's exported wooden forest products are shipped to the EU market,and the enforcement of EUDR is estimated to have a significant impact on China's wooden forest product exports and may even create new trade barriers.This study constructs a two-stage analytical framework integrating machine learning variable selection(LASSO)with time series models(OLS),to quantitatively assess the dynamic impact of the EUDR after its enforcement on the value of China's wooden forest products and wooden furniture exports to the EU.The results show that the impact of EUDR exhibits distinct phased characteristics.At key milestones when the EUDR officially takes effect and when it applies to SME operators,the export value is projected to decline significantly,and the SMEs will be particularly severely affected.However,as enterprises get gradually adapted by taking measures such as improving production processes and establishing traceability systems,the export value is expected to experience a sustained recovery approximately one year after the EUDR enforcement and eventually return to the level before the EUDR implementation.关键词
《欧盟零毁林法案》/木质林产品/出口/绿色供应链/机器学习变量选择/中国Key words
European Union Deforestation Regulation(EUDR)/wooden forest product/export/green supply chain/Machine Learning Variable Selection/China分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
胡元辉,孟倩,夏杰,陈能..《欧盟零毁林法案》对中国输欧木质林产品的影响[J].世界林业研究,2026,39(1):114-121,8.基金项目
亚太森林网络管理中心资助项目"《欧盟零毁林法案》对亚太地区林产品贸易的潜在影响"(500103-8131). （500103-8131）
