水利水电技术（中英文）2026，Vol.57Issue(5)：1-13,13.DOI:10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2026.05.001
一种快速的短临暴雨灾害风险评估方法
A rapid risk assessment method for short-term rainstorm disaster
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]To address the challenges in short-term rainstorm disaster risk assessment,including strong suddenness of rainstorms,limited warning time,and insufficient assessment accuracy,a refined risk assessment and early-warning method is proposed,which integrates real-time meteorological data with dynamic risk factors.[Methods]Based on hourly observed and forecast precipitation data on a 3 km × 3 km grid in Nanjing,a risk quantification model of disaster-causing factors was developed(including five indicators such as rainstorm warning level,affected area,and process precipitation).Combined with vulnerability indicators of exposed elements(including river water level,dynamic population density,and disaster data)and the precipitation probability index,the comprehensive risk index(R)was calculated by GIS spatial overlay and a multiplicative integration approach to classify four risk levels:extremely severe(R≥9),severe(7＜R＜9),moderate(5＜R＜7),and general(3＜R＜5).The weights of the factors in the model were preliminarily validated through historical event inversion and sensitivity analysis.[Results]The model validation during the September 2024 Nanjing rainstorm event demonstrated that high-risk areas could be accurately identified(at 0.03°×0.03° spatial resolution).The risk indices calculated reached 9.2 in southern Baima Town of Lishui District and 9.1 in northern Yaxi Town of Gaochun District,both classified as extremely severe level,which was consistent with the field disaster investigation result(1 652 cases of fallen trunks/branches and 79 cases of fallen billboards).With real-time data updates,the dynamic assessment response time was maintained within one hour,with an early warning accuracy rate of 87.3％.[Conclusion]Through multi-source data integration and grid-based dynamic calculation,the proposed method significantly improves the timeliness and accuracy of short-term rainstorm risk assessment and provides street-level refined early warning support for urban disaster prevention and mitigation.关键词
短临暴雨/致灾因子/灾害风险/量化评估预警/降水/气候变化/城市防灾减灾/多元数据融合Key words
short-term rainstorm/disaster-causing factors/disaster risk/quantitative assessment and early warning/precipitation/climate change/urban disaster prevention and mitigation/multi-source data integration分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王金虎,孙鹤宇,王钰尧,许俊辉,李翔,曲科,朱勇,苗宇轩,周经宇..一种快速的短临暴雨灾害风险评估方法[J].水利水电技术（中英文）,2026,57(5):1-13,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41905026) （41905026）
江苏省自然科学基金项目(BK20170945) （BK20170945）
南京信息工程大学人才启动基金项目(2016r028) （2016r028）
中国博士后科学基金第63批面上课题(2018M631554) （2018M631554）
江苏省333高层次人才培养工程((2022)3-16-375) （(2022）
江苏省高等教育教改立项研究课题(2023JSJG330) （2023JSJG330）
