天津科技大学学报2026，Vol.41Issue(3)：73-80,8.DOI:10.13364/j.issn.1672-6510.20240224
百年重现期渤海风暴潮灾害统计分析与风险评估
Statistical Analysis and Risk Assessment of Storm Surge Disasters in the Bohai Sea with a 100-Year Return Period
摘要
Abstract
Based on the finite volume coastal ocean model(FVCOM)and simulation data obtained from the weather research and forecasting(WRF)mesoscale meteorological forecasting model,a long-term numerical simulation of storm surge proc-esses in the Bohai Sea over 20 years(1987-2006)was conducted in this current study.The simulated data were statistically analyzed by using the generalized extreme value(GEV)theory,and the future storm surge disaster risk in the Bohai Sea was statistically assessed.The cumulative probabilities of the highest water levels of storm surge at stations including Tanggu and Huanghua under a 100-years return period were analyzed.The results indicate that for a 10-year return period at Tanggu Sta-tion,the probability of the highest storm surge level exceeding 5.1 m is 100%,exceeding 5.9 m is 41%,and exceeding 6.1 m is 10%.For a 100-year return period at Tanggu Station,the probability of exceeding 5.1 m remains 100%,while the prob-ability of exceeding 6.9 m is 59%.Statistical analysis of the data shows that at the 300-year return level and with a 95%con-fidence level,the storm surge return levels at Tanggu,Huanghua,Caofeidian,and Yangjiagou stations increase rapidly dur-ing the first 20 years,followed by a slower increase that gradually stabilizes.Among these,notably,Tanggu and Huanghua stations exhibit the most significant increases.The spatial distribution characteristics of the highest storm surge levels in the Bohai Sea under a 100-year return period are presented.The highest surge levels(7.0-7.5 m)occur along the western coast of Bohai Bay,which warrants significant attention.The storm surge disaster risk in the Bohai Sea is predicted and assessed,and the spatial distribution of storm surge disaster warning levels is provided.Under a 10-year return period,the nearshore areas of Bohai Bay face the highest storm surge hazard risk,classified as red warning level(the most severe).The innermost zone of Liaodong Bay and the bottom part of Laizhou Bay follow,categorized as orange(high risk),indicating secondary but significant threats.Under a 100-year return period,the storm surge disaster level in Bohai Bay is classified as red,the waters of Liaodong Bay are orange,the innermost zone of Liaodong Bay escalates to red,and most areas of Laizho Bay are orange.关键词
风暴潮/风险评估/数值模拟/统计分析/FVCOM/渤海Key words
storm surge/risk assessment/numerical simulation/statistical analysis/FVCOM/Bohai Sea分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
丁玉梅,叶子凡..百年重现期渤海风暴潮灾害统计分析与风险评估[J].天津科技大学学报,2026,41(3):73-80,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41876018,41606098) （41876018,41606098）
天津市自然科学基金项目(19JCYBJC22000) （19JCYBJC22000）
