眼科学报2026，Vol.41Issue(5)：360-373,14.DOI:10.12419/25110801
1990-2021年全球和中国归因于高BMI的白内障疾病负担及变化趋势分析
Disease burden of cataract attributable to high BMI and its changing trends globally and in China from 1990 to 2021
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To investigate the disease burden and trends of cataract attributable to high body mass index(BMI)globally and in China from 1990 to 2021,analyze its distribution by age,sex,and socio-demographic index(SDI),and project future trends from 2022 to 2040.The study aim is to provide an evidence base for optimizing preventive strategies for high BMI attributable cataract.Methods:Using data from the Global Burden of Disease(GBD)2021,we analyzed and compared the disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)for cataract attributable to high BMI globally,in China,and across 21 GBD regions and 5 SDI quintiles from 1990 to 2021.Joinpoint regression model was used to evaluate temporal trends in age-standardized DALY rates(ASDRs),and an ARIMA model was applied to predict the disease burden from 2022 to 2040.Results:In 2021,the highest DALY rates for high BMI-attributable cataract were observed in North Africa and the Middle East,Oceania,and Sub-Saharan West Africa.The DALY rate in China remained below the global average.Between 1990 to 2021,the global ASDR for this condition increased steadily,while China experienced a marked increase of 154.43%.Both globally and in China,the disease burden increased with age,peaking in the 70-74 age group.Furthermore,DALY rates were consistently higher in females than in males across all age groups.Among the 5 SDI quintiles,the low-middle SDI quintile exhibited the highest ASDR and the fastest growth,whereas the high SDI quintile had the lowest rate and slowest growth.ARIMA projections indicate that the global ASDR will continue to rise through 2040,with China's projected increase substantially exceeding both the global average and all SDI quintiles.Conclusions:The global disease burden of cataract attributable to high BMI has risen steadily since 1990 and is projected to continue increasing,with China's growth outpacing the global average.Maintaining a healthy BMI is crucial for cataract prevention.Targeted public health policies should be strengthened,prioritizing low-middle SDI regions,females,and older adults.关键词
身体质量指数/白内障/全球疾病负担/变化趋势/伤残调整寿命年Key words
body mass index/cataract/Global Disease Burden(GBD)/trend/disability-adjusted life years分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
黄韵致,肖宇琨,王琦玮,刘臻臻..1990-2021年全球和中国归因于高BMI的白内障疾病负担及变化趋势分析[J].眼科学报,2026,41(5):360-373,14.基金项目
广东省自然科学基金面上项目(2023A1515011102) （2023A1515011102）
眼病防治全国重点实验室课题基金资助(2025QZLH05) （2025QZLH05）
国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(82301209) （82301209）
广东省基础与应用基础研究基金联合基金(2022A1515012102).This work was supported by the General Program of Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province(2023A1515011102) （2022A1515012102）
the State Key Laboratory of Ophthalmology(2025QZLH05) （2025QZLH05）
the National Natural Science Foundation of China Youth Project(82301209) （82301209）
the Guangdong Basic and Applied Basic Research Foundation(2022A1515012102). （2022A1515012102）
