医学新知2026，Vol.36Issue(6)：657-664,8.DOI:10.12173/j.issn.1004-5511.202602035
基于安徽省医疗卫生机构人员数量构建卫生人力资源最优组合预测模型的策略探讨
Exploring strategies for constructing optimal combined forecasting models for health human resources based on personnel numbers in Anhui Province's healthcare institutions
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct and compare various combined forecasting models for health human resources based on personnel number in Anhui Province's healthcare institutions,to explore strategies for developing the optimal combined forecasting model.Methods Data on the personnel number in healthcare institutions in Anhui Province from 1988 to 2022 was obtained from the Anhui Statistical Yearbook.All possible combined models were constructed using the Holt model,ARIMA model,NNAR model,GM(1,1),and random forest model.The personnel number in Anhui Province's healthcare institutions from 2018 to 2022 was predicted.The optimal combined model was selected by comparing 3 error metrics of mean squared error(MSE),mean absolute error(MAE),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE).Results The combined model of the GM(1,1)and random forest achieved the lowest prediction error among all combined models,with MSE,MAE and MAPE values were 146,101,146,10,587.465 and 2.267,which was the optimal combined forecasting model.Conclusion A certain number of individual models are initially selected,and all possible combinations are generated.These combined models are then evaluated using error metrics to effectively identify the one with the smallest prediction error.This strategy can scientifically and rationally screen various models,ultimately yielding the optimal combined forecasting model.关键词
卫生人力资源/灰色模型/随机森林模型/组合预测模型Key words
Health human resources/Grey model/Random forest model/Combined forecasting model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
王逸凡,韦昕宇,汪国英,沈铮先,尹青青,王斌..基于安徽省医疗卫生机构人员数量构建卫生人力资源最优组合预测模型的策略探讨[J].医学新知,2026,36(6):657-664,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(81573217) （81573217）
