中国草地学报2026，Vol.48Issue(6)：109-122,14.DOI:10.16742/j.zgcdxb.20250388
气候变化背景下中国四种仲彬草属物种的潜在分布预测
Projected Potential Distributions of Four Kengyilia Species in China under Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
Kengyilia species are key components of alpine meadow ecosystems in China.To assess the effects of climate change on their potential distributions,four representative Kengyilia species:K.tahela-cana,K.laxiflora,K.thoroldiana,and K.mutica were selected.An optimized MaxEnt model was then used with occurrence records and environmental variables from multiple periods to project changes in suit-able habitat and centroid migration.The results showed that mean area under the receiver operating charac-teristic curve(AUC)ranged from 0.828 to 0.864,indicating high predictive accuracy.Elevation,tempera-ture seasonality,and annual temperature range were the dominant environmental variables affecting species distributions.Under current climatic conditions,suitable habitats for all four species were concentrated on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and in surrounding alpine regions.Compared with the current region,the areas of suitable habitats for the four species under future climate scenarios show fluctuating changes.The suit-able habitats of K.tahelacana and K.thoroldiana expanded,while those of K.laxiflora and K.mutica contracted.The centroids generally shifted towards the northeast with higher latitudes and altitudes.These shifts were greater under the high-emission SSP5-8.5 scenario.关键词
MaxEnt模型/气候变化/仲彬草属/潜在分布区/质心转移Key words
MaxEnt model/Climate change/Kengyilia species/Potential distribution area/Centroid shift分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
李洋,苏旭,刘玉萍,张羽新,咸文佩,王巧乐..气候变化背景下中国四种仲彬草属物种的潜在分布预测[J].中国草地学报,2026,48(6):109-122,14.基金项目
青海省重大科技专项(2023-SF-A5) （2023-SF-A5）
