中国农业资源与区划2026，Vol.47Issue(4)：154-165,12.DOI:10.7621/cjarrp.1005-9121.20260413
基于三阶段DEA-Malmquist指数的中国棉花全要素生产率测算
MEASUREMENT OF TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY OF CHINA'S COTTON INDUSTRY BASED ON THE THREE-STAGE DEA-MALMQUIST INDEX
摘要
Abstract
The production of cotton,a crucial commercial crop,reveals market orientation and the principle of efficiency regarding resource allocation.Thus,evaluating the total factor productivity of cotton scientifically has an essential meaning for clarifying the status quo of cotton production and promoting efficient and sustainable development of the cotton industry.This research utilized the three-stage DEA-Malmquist model to calculate the total factor productivity of cotton in China from 1990 to 2022,eliminating influences of external environmental factors such as social economic development,plantation structure,and direct compensation policy of cotton.The results were listed as follows.(1)External environmental factors exerted a significant impact on the total factor productivity of cotton in China.The rise of economic development level and the increase of the percentage of cotton plantations in plantation structure would prevent the improvement of the total factor productivity of cotton by causing redundancy of land cost.In the direct compensation policy of cotton,compensation for fine breeds would cause redundancy in labor costs,although it could promote the effective use of land costs.The target price policy of cotton could increase the total factor productivity by improving the utilization efficiency of labor costs.(2)Before the market-orientation reform of the cotton industry in China,the fluctuation of the total factor productivity of cotton was fierce.The productivity gradually became stable after the reform.After eliminating the environmental factors,the total factor productivity of cotton in China between 1990 and 2022 increased from 0.964 to 1.002 with weaker fluctuation.(3)The sequence of the total factor productivity of different regions from 1990 to 2022 was dramatically changed.The total factor productivity of cotton in the Yangtze River cotton region gradually changed from the leader to the backward,the Yellow River cotton region jumped from the last to the first,and the northwest inland cotton region was gradually surpassed by the Yellow River cotton region.In conclusion,the following suggestions for government are given out:The government should actively optimize the allocation of land resources,guide the rational transfer of land resources,and ensure stable production to avoid land cost redundancy caused by economic development and changes in the planting structure.It is necessary to improve the cotton subsidy policy.And when adjusting the fine variety subsidy policy,the subsidy basis should no longer be solely based on the variety.For the cotton target price policy,a dual-index subsidy based on both output and quality should be adopted.Additionally,regional layouts and development strategies should be adjusted.The cotton-growing area in the Yellow River Basin should be moderately restored.The Yangtze River cotton region should increase investment in scientific research.And the northwest inland cotton region should improve the industrial chain and promote technological innovation and the popularization of the cotton industry.关键词
棉花生产/全要素生产率/目标价格政策/区域差异/三阶段DEA-Malmquist模型Key words
cotton production/total factor productivity(TFP)/target price policy/regional disparities/three-stage DEA-Malmquist model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘玲洁,曾兵,温赛赛,罗其友,李国景,刘洋..基于三阶段DEA-Malmquist指数的中国棉花全要素生产率测算[J].中国农业资源与区划,2026,47(4):154-165,12.基金项目
第三次新疆综合科学考察"塔里木河流域农业生产结构与布局现状与演变调查"(2021xjkk0204) （2021xjkk0204）
