智库理论与实践2026，Vol.11Issue(3)：11-26,16.DOI:10.19318/j.cnki.issn.2096-1634.20260125.0003
从文本分析到演化图谱:认知域博弈的理论谱系与趋势预测
From Text Analysis to Strategic Mapping:Theoretical Genealogy and Trend Forecasting of Cognitive Domain Contestation
摘要
Abstract
[Purpose/Significance]Addressing the current international landscape of cognitive domain con-testation,this paper breaks through the limitations of existing studies,which predominantly rely on subjective empirical analysis and lack systematic historical evolutionary tracking,by conducting a quantitative analysis of the theoretical genealogy in this field.It aims to dissect the patterns of divergence and convergence in cognitive domain contestation theories and to forecast strategic development trends.[Method/Process]Using open-source foreign-language literature on cognitive domain contestation as the data sample,the study employs large language model(LLM)for in-depth preprocessing.LDA2Vec and dynamic topic model(DTM)are constructed respectively to enable an objective and dynamic examination of theoretical development and the evolution of strategic focus.In addition,a Logistic model is applied to predict trends in the attention paid to core topical keywords.[Result/Con-clusion]In the thematic evolution dimension,a Sankey diagram visualizes the temporal progression of theories.In the topical popularity progression dimension,a heatmap illustrates the evolving intensity of core theories within the field.The results demonstrate that strategic focus has shifted from singular information manipulation toward a multi-dimensional framework encompassing technological empowerment,psychological operations,and national political security.On this basis,a theoretical genealogy model of cognitive domain contestation is distilled,offer-ing a systematic framework for understanding the co-evolutionary mechanisms of the field and providing theoreti-cal support for optimizing cognitive security strategy and policy formulation.关键词
认知域博弈/理论谱系/动态主题模型/趋势预测/Logistic模型Key words
cognitive domain contestation/theoretical genealogy/dynamic topic model/trend forecasting/Logistic model分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
沈宇航,夏一雪,周亭,刘耀文,刘佳豪..从文本分析到演化图谱:认知域博弈的理论谱系与趋势预测[J].智库理论与实践,2026,11(3):11-26,16.基金项目
本文系国家社会科学基金项目"认知战条件下舆论生态风险建模与防范机制研究"(项目编号:24BXW059)研究成果之一. （项目编号:24BXW059）
