资源开发与市场2026，Vol.42Issue(6)：880-889,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-8141.2026.06.009
聚焦中国—东盟:进出口贸易结构变化与贸易增长
The structural changes and trade growth in China-ASEAN import and export trade under the multi-sectoral economic model and the shift-share model
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global value chain restructuring and accelerated regional economic integration,trade relations of China-ASEAN have become one of the core drivers of economic growth in the Asia-Pacific region.Using a multi sector economy and deviation share model,the contribution rate and deviation share of the dynamic changes in the industrial structure of China-ASEAN import and export trade to the growth of import and export trade from 2016 to 2023 were measured.An econometric model was construc-ted to test the marginal efficiency of the China-ASEAN import and export trade structure on the total trade volume.The results showed that:The structural changes and trade growth characteristics of China-ASEAN import and export trade from 2016 to 2023 were com-plex and diverse.Under the multi sector economic model,the synchronization between industrial structure adjustment and trade value growth was obvious in most countries,but the contribution of dynamic changes in industrial structure to economic growth varied signifi-cantly among different countries.The deviation shares and competitiveness deviation share of industrial,agricultural,and service trade industries varied among countries.The growth of the total value of import and export trade was influenced by various factors,and the driving force of trade growth varied among different countries.Based on the above conclusion,it was suggested to improve China's trade volume strategy with ASEAN:Explore the potential of service industry trade and stabilize service exports;Consolidate the foundation of industrial trade and formulate industrial trade strategies for different countries;Stabilize the scale of agricultural trade,meet the needs of major agricultural countries,and expand imports.In terms of optimizing China's trade structure with ASEAN:Enhance the proportion of the service industry in trade;Promote the upgrading of industrial trade towards high-end and strengthen cooperation in technological innovation;Maintain the characteristics and advantages of agricultural trade,and develop characteristic agricultural trade.关键词
贸易结构/贸易增长/多部门经济模型/偏离份额模型/中国—东盟Key words
trade structure/trade growth/multi-sectoral economic model/shift-share model/China-ASEAN分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
姜国珍..聚焦中国—东盟:进出口贸易结构变化与贸易增长[J].资源开发与市场,2026,42(6):880-889,10.基金项目
广西高校人文社会科学重点研究基地"北部湾海洋发展研究中心"项目资助. （）
