海南医科大学学报2026，Vol.32Issue(13)：1024-1033,10.DOI:10.13210/j.cnki.jhmu.20250630.001
1990～2021年海南省青少年抑郁症疾病负担:年龄和性别特异性时间趋势及10年预测
Burden of disease for depression among adolescents in Hainan Province,1990-2021:Age-and sex-specific time trends and 10-year projections
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the trends in the disease burden of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years in Hainan Province from 1990 to 2021,identify risk factors,and predict future trends.Methods:Data from the 2021 Global Burden of Dis-ease(GBD)study for Hainan Province were utilized.Joinpoint software was used to analyze the trends in the incidence and disabil-ity-adjusted life year(DALY)of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years from 1990 to 2021.A time series model was es-tablished using R software to predict the incidence and DALY rates of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years in Hainan Province from 2022 to 2031.Results:From 1990 to 2021,the incidence and DALY rates of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years in Hainan Province showed a declining trend,with decreases of 15.29%and 0.53%,respectively.There were signifi-cant gender differences in the trends of disease burden,with females having significantly higher incidence and DALY rates than males(P<0.001).Adolescents aged 20-24 years had higher incidence and DALY rates compared to those aged 15-19 and 10-14 years(P<0.001).Child abuse and bullying victimization were identified as major risk factors for depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years in Hainan Province.Additionally,intimate partner violence was the third major risk factor for females compared to males.The ARIMA model predicts a gradual upward trend in the incidence and DALY rates of depression among adolescents aged 10-24 years in Hainan Province from 2022 to 2031.Conclusions:From 1990 to 2021,the overall disease burden of depres-sion among adolescents aged 10-24 years in Hainan Province showed a declining trend.However,a slight increase in disease bur-den is expected over the next decade.Females and adolescents aged 10-14 years should be the focus of depression prevention and control efforts,with continued emphasis on early detection and intervention.关键词
抑郁症/青少年/疾病负担/海南省Key words
Depression/Adolescents/Disease burden/Hainan Province分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
耿修来,邹金婷,陈赛苦,刘江美,刘莹,张东献..1990～2021年海南省青少年抑郁症疾病负担:年龄和性别特异性时间趋势及10年预测[J].海南医科大学学报,2026,32(13):1024-1033,10.基金项目
This study was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of Hainan Province(823RC501) 海南省自然科学基金(823RC501) （823RC501）
