农业机械学报2026，Vol.57Issue(15)：64-74,11.DOI:10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2026.15.006
融合改进D-S证据理论与超标倍数法的鸡舍环境评估模型
Environmental Evaluation Model for Poultry Houses Integrating Improved D-S Evidence Theory and Exceedance Multiple Method
摘要
Abstract
The environment within large-scale broiler houses is a complex system characterized by dynamic,multi-factor interactions.Fixed-weight evaluation models failed to adequately capture its inherent uncertainty and the impact of parameter anomalies,resulting in discrepancies between evaluations and actual farming requirements.Tailored to the distinct characteristics of various environmental parameters,linear trapezoidal membership functions were applied to thermal factors(temperature,humidity,and wind speed),while nonlinear triangular membership functions were used for gas factors(CO2,NH3,and PM2.5).By converting raw monitoring data into membership degrees to construct the basic probability assignment(BPA),the interference of subjective factors in probability distribution was effectively minimized.To resolve the fusion distortion inherent in traditional D-S evidence theory when handling highly conflicting evidence,Deng entropy was introduced to quantify the informational uncertainty of the evidence.Combined with evidence distance,a conflict measurement factor was constructed.By calculating the support and credibility of each piece of evidence via a similarity matrix,the traditional D-S combination rule was improved,thereby enhancing the stability of multi-source data fusion.Furthermore,recognizing the severe impact of out-of-limit parameters on flock health,an exceedance multiple method was employed to establish a dynamic weight adjustment mechanism.Based on the safety thresholds of individual parameters,this mechanism used a linear formula alongside an amplification coefficient(k1)and a nonlinear adjustment parameter(a)—both optimized by a genetic algorithm—to dynamically redistribute the weights of out-of-limit parameters.This amplified the model's sensitivity and penalization of abnormal environmental factors.Experimental results evaluating 160 sets of environmental parameters revealed that the traditional fuzzy analytic hierarchy process(FAHP)achieved an accuracy of only 70.00%,while the improved evidence theory alone reached 87.50%.However,upon integrating the exceedance multiple method,the evaluation accuracy rose significantly to 93.13%.Consequently,the proposed method more accurately reflected the actual conditions within the poultry house.The research result can provide solid theoretical support and a robust technical framework for the precise regulation of large-scale broiler house environments,offering valuable applications for the optimization and upgrading of smart farming environmental monitoring systems.关键词
鸡舍环境评估/D-S证据理论/动态权重分配/隶属度函数/超标倍数法Key words
poultry house environmental assessment/D-S evidence theory/dynamic weight allocation/membership function/exceedance multiple method分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
李丽华,钱政恺,谢宗奎,顾雨涵,李佳毅..融合改进D-S证据理论与超标倍数法的鸡舍环境评估模型[J].农业机械学报,2026,57(15):64-74,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(32573279)、河北省现代农业产业技术体系建设专项资金项目(HBCT2024260203、HBCT2024270208)和河北农业大学获批人才引进计划项目(YJ2023049) （32573279）
