财经理论与实践2026，Vol.47Issue(4)：36-43,8.DOI:10.16339/j.cnki.hdxbcjb.2026.04.005
全球金融周期、国内生产网络与行业输入性风险
Global Financial Cycle,Domestic Production Network,and Industry Imported Risk
摘要
Abstract
Based on extreme value theory,this study measures industry-level imported risk in China.Employing a heterogeneous spatial auto-regressive(HSAR)model,it investigates the im-pact of the global financial cycle on China's industry-level imported risk,and examines the role of the domestic industrial production network in this transmission process.The study finds that a downturn in the global financial cycle increases industry-level imported risk in China and strengthens the systemic linkage between China's industries and international market.The do-mestic production network serves as a significant channel through which the global financial cycle affects industry-level imported risk in China,and network effects induced by input-output linka-ges among China's industries contribute over 40％to the total effect.Under global financial cycle shocks,bidirectional risk contagion occurs between upstream and downstream industries.In light of these findings,a two-dimensional(international and domestic)monitoring and early-warning system should be established,encompassing both the global financial cycle and inter-industry in-put-output linkages.Differentiated and dynamic capital management tools should be implemen-ted,and the resilience of industrial chains should be enhanced to mitigate negative network effects.关键词
全球金融周期/生产网络/输入性风险/HSAR模型Key words
global financial cycle/production network/imported risk/HSAR model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
李薇,李政..全球金融周期、国内生产网络与行业输入性风险[J].财经理论与实践,2026,47(4):36-43,8.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(22&ZD120) （22&ZD120）
国家社会科学基金后期资助项目(24FJYB027) （24FJYB027）
国家社会科学基金一般项目(24BJY084) （24BJY084）
