财经理论与实践2026，Vol.47Issue(4)：44-51,8.DOI:10.16339/j.cnki.hdxbcjb.2026.04.006
农村基本养老金与家庭生育激励
Rural Basic Pensions and Household Fertility Incentives:Analysis Based on Fuzzy Regression Discontinuity
摘要
Abstract
Within the overlapping generations framework,the basic pensions of elderly adults help reallocate household economic and time resources,thereby shifting family relations from in-tergenerational competition to intergenerational sharing and,in turn,generating a significant fer-tility-enhancing effect.To examine this mechanism,this study draws on six waves of rural household panel data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS),spanning 2012 to 2022,and employs a fuzzy regression discontinuity design that approximates a natural experiment for causal identification and effect evaluation.The results show that,compared with households in which elderly adults do not receive rural basic pensions,households with pension recipients exhibit a statistically significant increase in fertility,with an average rise of 7.45 percentage points.Pen-sion income significantly reduces labor force participation among elderly adults while increasing their likelihood of engaging in grandparental childcare.This pattern can be explained by plausible underlying mechanisms,and the effect is found to be more pronounced in regions where the cost of childbearing is relatively low.In light of these findings,it is essential to improve both old-age security and fertility subsidy policies so as to better harness their synergistic coupling in fostering a fertility-friendly society.关键词
农村基本养老金/代际资源共享/家庭生育激励/模糊断点回归Key words
rural basic pensions/intergenerational resource sharing/household fertility incen-tives/fuzzy regression discontinuity分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
于新亮,黄鹏程,杨澍东,申宇鹏..农村基本养老金与家庭生育激励[J].财经理论与实践,2026,47(4):44-51,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(72274107) （72274107）
山东省泰山学者工程专项经费(tsqn202312226) （tsqn202312226）
山东省人文社会科学课题一般项目(2025) （2025）
