高电压技术2026，Vol.52Issue(7)：3086-3097,中插1,13.DOI:10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20260355
基于预训练时序基础模型的极端天气海上风电功率预测
Offshore Wind Power Forecasting Under Extreme Weather Based on Pre-trained Time-series Foundation Model
摘要
Abstract
Wind power sequences under extreme weather conditions exhibit strong non-stationarity and abrupt variation characteristics.Meanwhile,the scarcity of historical samples makes it difficult for traditional deep learning methods to be fully trained,leading to a significant decline in prediction accuracy.To address this issue,this paper proposes a two-phase adaptive forecasting framework based on a pre-trained time-series foundation model,termed the Typhoon two-phase adaptive prediction model(TTPAPM).First,a typhoon adaptation module is designed to separately represent the periodic components and abrupt disturbance components of the input sequence,thereby enhancing the model's perception capabil-ity for abnormal meteorological features.Then,the two types of features are concatenated and fused before being fed into the pre-trained time-series foundation model to achieve hourly-scale power prediction.Finally,a two-stage hybrid opti-mization strategy is introduced to effectively correct the data distribution shift caused by extreme weather through targeted calibration of both regular and typhoon distributions.The results show that:1)The proposed method can be used to effectively solve the problems of the modeling difficulty caused by sample scarcity under typhoon conditions,and compared with the best baseline model,the coefficient of determination(R2)under regular weather and typhoon weather is improved by 10.5％and 3.5％,respectively;2)Under the zero-shot setting,the prediction accuracy under regular and typhoon weather reaches 0.85 and 0.71,respectively,indicating good transfer ability and prediction stability;3)In terms of computational resources,the memory consumption is significantly lower than that of the baseline models.This study can provide an effective reference for applying time-series foundation models to wind power prediction under extreme weather scenarios.关键词
风电预测/台风天气/TTPAPM/零样本能力/时序基础模型Key words
wind power forecasting/typhoon weather/TTPAPM/zero-shot capability/time series foundation model引用本文复制引用
李少锋,沈晓东,刘俊勇,范士雄..基于预训练时序基础模型的极端天气海上风电功率预测[J].高电压技术,2026,52(7):3086-3097,中插1,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(52477113).Project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(52477113). （52477113）
