海河水利Issue(7)：58-63,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-7328.2026.07.010
基于经验分析法的中小河流预报预警研究
Forecast and Early Warning of Small and Medium Rivers Based on Empirical Analysis Method
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the characteristics of small and medium rivers,including strong flood suddenness,short confluence time,and great difficulty in forecast and early warning,this paper explores rapid forecast and early warning methods for small and medium river floods.Taking a hydrological station in Zhejiang Province as an example,historical flood process data of the basin are collected,and regression analysis is used to analyze the correlation between peak-generating rainfall,rainfall duration,and water level rise,constructing a forecast water level quick-reference table based on a linear regression model.Meanwhile,the upstream-downstream water level correlation method is used,combined with mathematical function relationships,to rapidly derive the peak water level at downstream hydrological stations.The research results can provide reference for defense dispatch of small and medium river floods.关键词
中小河流/预报预警/回归分析/相关分析Key words
small and medium rivers/forecast and early warning/regression analysis/correlation analysis分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
余维维,牛司香,王月华,李晓龙..基于经验分析法的中小河流预报预警研究[J].海河水利,2026,(7):58-63,6.基金项目
浙江省科技计划项目课题"自然灾害监测预报和应急救援关键技术研究——暴雨-山洪链式灾害风险预报及应急防控关键技术研究与示范应用"资助(2025C02048) （2025C02048）
