黑龙江农业科学Issue(8)：56-68,13.DOI:10.11942/j.issn1002-2767.2026.08.0056
库车市近30年土地利用变化的生态环境效应及驱动因素
Study on Eco-Environmental Effects and Driving Forces of Land Use Change in Kuqa City Over the Past 30 Years
摘要
Abstract
In order to explore the ecological effects and driving factors of land use change in oasis cities of arid regions,this study takes Kuqa City as a case study.Based on Landsat imagery from 1990 to 2020,land use patterns were identified using the Random Forest Algorithm.Land use transfer matrices and dynamic indices were applied to analyze change processes,and an ecological environmental quality index was constructed to evaluate ecological effects.Land use intensity,together with natural and social factors,was incorporated into an optimal geographical detector to identify dominant drivers.The results show that,cultivated land and forest land increased by about 1 670 and 887 km2,respectively,construction land expanded nearly tenfold,and unused land decreased by about 4 000 km2,with the most significant changes occurring during 2000-2010.The ecological environmental quality index increased from 0.153 9 to 0.219 7 but remained at a relatively low level,exhibiting a spatial pattern of higher values in the north and lower values in the south.Further analysis of land use transitions shows that conversion of unused land to grassland and forest land had positive effects,whereas grassland degradation to unused land and conversion of forest land to cultivated land had negative effects.Population had the highest explanatory power in 1990,whereas NDVI became the dominant factor after 2000,and interaction effects were mainly characterized by enhancement.关键词
土地利用变化/长时间序列/转移矩阵/最优地理探测器/生态环境质量/生态贡献率Key words
land-use change/long-term time series/transition matrix/optimal geographical detector/ecological environmental quality/ecological contribution rate引用本文复制引用
孙俊,范燕敏,陈国立,赵玺,冯腾岩,雷娟娟,刘文惠..库车市近30年土地利用变化的生态环境效应及驱动因素[J].黑龙江农业科学,2026,(8):56-68,13.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFD1901503-2). （2023YFD1901503-2）
