家畜生态学报2026，Vol.47Issue(8)：77-87,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1182.2026.08.010
甘南农牧区家畜生产系统碳收支动态模拟研究
Dynamic Simulation of Carbon Budget in Livestock Production Systems in Gannan Agricultural and Pastoral Area
摘要
Abstract
To investigate the spatiotemporal differences and key influencing factors of carbon emissions and carbon absorption in the livestock production system of Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture,this study constructs a research framework of"emission-absorption-balance"to provide a theoretical basis for assessing the carbon budget of regional livestock production systems.Based on statistical data from the study area from 1991 to 2023,as well as regional carbon emission and carbon absorption coefficients,the carbon footprint life cycle assessment method was employed to evaluate the carbon emissions and carbon absorption of the main livestock species-cattle,sheep,and pigs-in the study area.A system dynamics model for the dynamic evolution of the carbon budget under different grazing intensities was also construc-ted.The results indicate that from 2010 to 2023,both greenhouse gas emissions from the livestock produc-tion system and carbon absorption by grasslands and livestock in the Gannan region showed a slowly in-creasing trend,with the region as a whole maintaining a net carbon sink status.Feed production and enter-ic fermentation were identified as the main sources of emissions.Significant differences in carbon budgets were observed across counties.High-altitude pastoral areas exhibited a larger net carbon sink due to their strong carbon sequestration capacity,but under high grazing pressure,there is a risk of transitioning from a carbon sink to a carbon source.Over the next 30 years,differences in the evolution of the carbon balance in the study area are expected.Under a no-intervention scenario,Maqu County may gradually shift from a carbon sink to a carbon source,while Hezuo City has the potential to reverse from a carbon source to a car-bon sink.The carbon budget of the livestock production system in Gannan is jointly driven by altitude and grazing pressure,exhibiting significant nonlinear dynamic characteristics.The construction of the"emis-sion-absorption-balance"framework can effectively characterize the carbon cycling mechanism of regional livestock production systems and provide a scientific basis for the low-carbon transformation of agricultural and pastoral areas.关键词
家畜生产系统/碳收支/生命周期评估/系统动力学模型/甘南农牧区Key words
livestock production system/carbon budget/life cycle assessment/system dynamics mod-el/Gannan agro-pastoral region分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
姜越,李薇,燕振刚..甘南农牧区家畜生产系统碳收支动态模拟研究[J].家畜生态学报,2026,47(8):77-87,11.基金项目
甘肃省科技计划项目软科学专项(23JRZA450) （23JRZA450）
甘肃省高校教师创新基金项目(2023B-081) （2023B-081）
甘肃省重点研发计划项目(21YF5FA095) （21YF5FA095）
