电力系统保护与控制2026，Vol.54Issue(15)：35-47,13.DOI:10.19783/j.cnki.pspc.260171
考虑三参量退化耦合关联信息的变压器油纸绝缘剩余寿命预测方法
Remaining life prediction method for transformer oil-paper insulation considering three-parameter degradation coupling correlation information
摘要
Abstract
To address the insufficient prediction accuracy of traditional insulation lifetime prediction methods caused by the neglect of coupling correlation information among multiple degradation parameters,this paper proposes a remaining life prediction method for transformer oil-paper insulation based on the three-dimensional C-vine Copula function,aiming to fully explore the capability of coupling correlation information among degradation parameters in characterizing insulation degradation behavior.First,a single-parameter degradation model of oil-paper insulation is constructed using a nonlinear Wiener process to capture the uncertainty and nonlinear characteristics inherent in the degradation behavior of oil-paper insulation.Second,a three-parameter joint probability distribution model for oil-paper insulation is developed based on the three-dimensional C-vine Copula function structure.This model extracts the latent degradation features embedded in the coupling correlation information of multiple parameters and enables precise characterization of the degradation trajectory.Finally,the Markov chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)-Gibbs sampling algorithm is employed to estimate the unknown parameters of the model,thereby achieving the remaining life prediction of transformer oil-paper insulation.Furfural,methanol,and 5-hydroxymethylfurfural are selected as insulation degradation parameters,and the reliability under both independent-parameter conditions and three-parameter coupled conditions is evaluated.The corresponding remaining life predictions are compared and analyzed.The results indicate that the proposed method can more accurately predict the remaining service life of oil-impregnated paper insulation.关键词
变压器/油纸绝缘/剩余寿命/多退化参量/耦合关联信息/C-vine CopulaKey words
transformer/oil-paper insulation/remaining life/multiple degradation parameters/coupling correlation information/C-vine Copula引用本文复制引用
杨冬锋,刘彦泽,曲岳晗,刘云鹏,刘晓军..考虑三参量退化耦合关联信息的变压器油纸绝缘剩余寿命预测方法[J].电力系统保护与控制,2026,54(15):35-47,13.基金项目
This work is supported by the National Key Special Program of China(No.2025YFE0106200). 国家重点专项资助(2025YFE0106200) （No.2025YFE0106200）
新能源电力系统全国重点实验室2025年开放课题(LAPS25014) （LAPS25014）
