技术与创新管理2026，Vol.47Issue(4)：414-424,11.DOI:10.14090/j.cnki.jscx.2026.0406
前景理论下供应链中断应急策略的演化博弈
Evolutionary Game Research on Emergency Strategies for Supply Chain Disruptions under Prospect Theory
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,supply chain disruption incidents have occurred frequently,so supply chain members are facing greater challenges in collaborative emergency decision-making.Enterprises' emer-gency strategies are classified into aggressive and conservative types,while supply chain partners' strat-egies are divided into cooperative and non-cooperative categories.Combining prospect theory,an evolu-tionary game model is constructed and numerical simulation is adopted to verify the influence of differ-ent core parameters on the evolution path of emergency strategies,revealing the mechanism of psycho-logical cognition and environmental constraints on the evolution of emergency strategies.The findings indicate that enhancing the perceived value of default costs by partners and strengthening enterprises' awareness of strategic risks are the key path to promote the system convergence towards the optimal e-quilibrium.In addition,the increase of the loss' aversion coefficient and perception sensitivity coeffi-cient will significantly suppress the risk appetite of enterprises and the willingness of partners to collab-orate,while the increase of the gain perception sensitivity coefficient will stimulate both sides to choose high-yield strategies.Moreover,there are psychological perception differences between enterprises and partners regarding the probability of strategy failure,while the subjective distortions of probability of both sides is an important cause of strategy mismatch.Furthermore,there is a threshold effect in the perception of time pressure,namely when the time pressure is relatively small,enterprises are more in-clined to choose aggressive strategies and partners are more willing to collaborate;meanwhile,partners are generally more sensitive to time pressure than enterprises.Overall,these findings suggest that emer-gency strategies for supply chain disruptions are not determined solely by objective benefit maximiza-tion,but are jointly driven by cooperation constraints,psychological cognition,and time pressure.This study provides theoretical evidence and decision-making support for enterprises to optimize emergency strategies and improve cooperative governance mechanisms in the context of supply chain disruptions.关键词
供应链中断/供应链应急策略/前景理论/演化博弈/时间压力Key words
supply chain disruption/supply chain emergency strategy/prospect theory/evolutionary game/time pressure分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
阮国祥,荆冬晴..前景理论下供应链中断应急策略的演化博弈[J].技术与创新管理,2026,47(4):414-424,11.基金项目
国家社会科学基金项目(22BGL039) （22BGL039）
