气象2026，Vol.52Issue(7)：869-879,11.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2026.050201
台风大风对输电线路致灾性的评估
Assessment on the Disaster Risk of Typhoon-Generated Strong Wind to Transmission Lines
摘要
Abstract
Based on China's design codes for building structures and major overhead transmission lines,this study adopts the generalized extreme value distribution theory and historical surface meteorological ob-servation data to calculate the basic wind pressures at different return-periods for meteorological observa-tion stations.The maximum wind pressure generated by the maximum wind and the extreme wind pressure generated by extreme wind are taken as the disaster-inducing factors of typhoon-generated strong wind for transmission lines,and a disaster assessment model is established by combining the wind pressure disaster threshold indicators of different types of transmission lines:low-voltage,medium-voltage,high-voltage,and ultra-high voltage and above.According to the impact of typhoon-generated strong wind on transmis-sion lines,the disaster level is divided into four grades:medium,relatively high,high and extremely high,and the corresponding disaster impacts on different types of transmission lines are specified.The disaster data from the meteorological disaster management system of the China Meteorological Administration be-tween 2012 and 2023 are used to verify the rationality of the developed disaster assessment model for transmission lines under typhoon-generated strong wind.Among the 205 samples with transmission line damage or power supply interruption caused by typhoons,the model identifies 183 samples with disaster risk on transmission lines,achieving an assessment accuracy of 89.3％.Out of the 162 samples of power disasters caused by typhoons with typhoon-level or above intensity landing in China,the model identifies 146 sam-ples with disaster risk on transmission lines.Among these,the proportions of samples with medium,rela-tively high,high and extremely high grades in the total samples are 26.5％,36.4％,14.8％and 12.3％respectively,and the assessment accuracy reaches 90.1％,indicating that the overall performance of the model is satisfactory.The developed assessment model can conduct disaster pre-assessment and rapid post-assessment by combining typhoon forecast or observation data.Thus provide reference for typhoon me-teorological services for the power industry.关键词
台风大风/风压/输电线路/致灾性/评估Key words
typhoon-generated strong wind/wind pressure/transmission line/disaster risk/assessment分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李佳英,王韫喆,王莉萍,张立生..台风大风对输电线路致灾性的评估[J].气象,2026,52(7):869-879,11.基金项目
中国气象局决策气象服务专项(JCZX2022013)、国家重点研发计划(2020YFE0201900)和国家气象中心创新团队气象灾害风险预警团队共同资助 （JCZX2022013）
