森林工程2026，Vol.42Issue(4)：694-706,13.DOI:10.7525/j.issn.1006-8023.2026.04.004
未来气候变化下黑龙江省人工林碳储量预测
Carbon Storage Projection of Plantations in Heilongjiang Province under Future Climate Change
摘要
Abstract
This study quantified the impact of environmental factors and human management on the carbon storage of co-niferous and broadleaf plantations in Heilongjiang Province,and predicted their future carbon sink potential,aiming to provide a scientific basis for the precise management of regional forest carbon sink.Long-term fixed plot survey data and standard stand yield tables were integrated to screen unmanaged sample plots.Random Forest was employed to analyze the impact of environmental factors on carbon storage.A"management impact coefficient"was subsequently quantified to assess the effect of management practices.Finally,carbon storage dynamics from 2020 to 2060 were simulated under various climate change and management scenarios.The results indicated that,environmental drivers exhibited signifi-cant species-specific differences:carbon storage in coniferous plantations was primarily controlled by moisture availabil-ity and extreme high temperatures,whereas broadleaf plantations were more sensitive to low temperatures and accumu-lated heat.Management practices significantly enhanced carbon sink,with their effectiveness varying by species and site quality.Broadleaf plantations demonstrated greater responsiveness to management interventions than coniferous stands.On high-quality sites,intensive management increased carbon storage by up to 23%.Future projections revealed that under the SSP2-4.5 scenario,intensive management primarily acted as a"gain"function,increasing carbon density by 18.5-23.8 Mg/hm2.Conversely,under the SSP3-7.0 scenario,its role shifted to"loss reduction",preventing carbon sink losses of 16.4-20.7 Mg/hm2.Optimized forest management is crucial for enhancing and stabilizing the carbon sink function of plantations in Heilongjiang Province.A differentiated management strategy is recommended:under increas-ing climatic stress,priority should be given to implementing adaptive management in coniferous plantations and those on high-quality sites to maximize their long-term carbon sequestration potential.关键词
人工林/气候变化/经营管理/随机森林/碳储量/森林资源清查数据/黑龙江省/碳密度Key words
Plantation forest/climate change/forest management/random forest/carbon storage/forest inventory data/Heilongjiang Province/carbon density分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
董芳慧,王斌..未来气候变化下黑龙江省人工林碳储量预测[J].森林工程,2026,42(4):694-706,13.基金项目
"十四五"国家重点研发计划课题(2023YFD2201704). （2023YFD2201704）
