护理研究2026，Vol.40Issue(16)：2815-2823,9.DOI:10.12102/j.issn.1009-6493.2026.16.007
异基因造血干细胞移植术后并发肛周感染预测模型的构建与验证
Construction and validation of a risk prediction model for patients complicated with perianal infection after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To explore the risk factors for patients complicated with perianal infection after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation,and to construct and verify the risk prediction model.Methods:A total of 259 patients who underwent allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation at a tertiary grade A hospital in Chongqing from January 2019 to December 2023 were selected as the modeling group.Relevant risk factors were screened through univariate and multivariate analyses,and a risk prediction model was constructed using R language.A total of 75 patients who underwent allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation in hospital from January 2024 to March 2025 were selected as the validation group.The model was evaluated and validated using the receiver operating characteristic curve area(AUC),Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test,decision curve analysis,and validation of the prediction model adopted.Results:The incidence of perianal infection in the modeling group was 18.53%,while that in the validation group was 24.00%.The risk factors of perianal infection after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation included the history of perianal diseases,diarrhea,duration of neutropenia,and preoperative prognostic nutritional index.A predictive model for perianal infection after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation was constructed based on these risk factors.The AUC value of the modeling group was 0.773,with a sensitivity of 0.604,a specificity of 0.853,and a maximum Youden index of 0.457.The AUC value of the validation group was 0.726,with a sensitivity of 0.745,a specificity of 0.897,and a maximum Youden index of 0.442.The decision curve analysis indicated that this model had good clinical benefits within a wide range of risk threshold probabilities.Conclusions:The predictive model for patients complicated with perianal infection after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation has excellent predictive performance.It could provide a scientific basis for the early assessment of perianal infection after allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation.关键词
造血干细胞移植/肛周感染/危险因素/预测模型Key words
hematopoietic stem cell transplantation/perianal infection/risk factors/predictive model引用本文复制引用
吴霞,叶洪敏,马海霞,胡盼,邓建川,甘秀妮..异基因造血干细胞移植术后并发肛周感染预测模型的构建与验证[J].护理研究,2026,40(16):2815-2823,9.基金项目
重庆市自然科学基金创新发展联合基金资助项目,编号:CSTB2023NSCQ-LZX0052 （）
