中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）2026，Vol.42Issue(4)：14-25,12.DOI:10.13216/j.cnki.upcjess.2026.04.0002
数字经济驱动城市碳减排的系统仿真与情景模拟研究
Research on System Simulation and Scenario Analysis of Urban Carbon Emission Reduction Driven by Digital Economy
摘要
Abstract
To explore the complexity and dynamics of the relationship between the digital economy and urban carbon emissions,it is es-sential to scientifically understand the inherent evolutionary mechanisms of the system and the interactions among its components.Based on an analysis of the coupling mechanism between the digital economy and urban carbon emissions,this study integrates the mul-tidimensional impact pathways of the digital economy on carbon emissions through social,industrial,and energy-related factors.A sys-tem dynamics model of the digital economy-urban carbon emissions system is constructed and applied to Qingdao City for simulation a-nalysis.The results indicate that the digital economy can significantly reduce urban carbon emissions,carbon emission intensity,and total energy consumption through four synergistic pathways:industrial structure optimization,energy structure transformation,energy intensity reduction,and guidance of residents'energy consumption behaviors.Among these pathways,energy structure transformation serves as the core pathway for emission reduction.Scenario simulations reveal that the balanced development scenario achieves both the greatest emission reduction effectiveness and the highest robustness of implementation pathways.Accordingly,this study suggests that cities should promote the digital transformation of energy systems,enhance the synergy between industrial digitalization and energy effi-ciency improvement,and establish dual-control mechanisms for carbon emissions alongside digital accounting systems.关键词
数字经济/碳排放/减排路径/系统动力学/多情景模拟Key words
digital economy/carbon emissions/emission reduction pathways/system dynamics/multi-scenario simulation分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张菲菲,任兴东..数字经济驱动城市碳减排的系统仿真与情景模拟研究[J].中国石油大学学报（社会科学版）,2026,42(4):14-25,12.基金项目
青岛市哲学社会科学规划项目(QDSKL2301135) （QDSKL2301135）
山东省高等学校青创科技支持计划项目(2024KJL011) （2024KJL011）
