摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the long-term trends in liver cancer incidence and mortality in China,and provide evidence for the de-velopment of liver cancer prevention and control strategies.Methods Based on the data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(GBD 2021),the trends in liver cancer incidence and mortality in China from 1992 to 2021 were analyzed.An age-period-cohort(APC)model was applied to assess the independent effects of age,period,and birth cohort on the burden of liver cancer.Results From 1992 to 2021,the numbers of liver cancer cases and deaths in China increased by 93.94％and 75.26％,respectively,the crude incidence and mortali-ty rates increased by 64.33％and 48.53％,whereas the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates decreased by 9.16％and 20.32％.Sex-stratified analysis showed that the decreases in the age-standardized incidence and mortality rates were greater among females than those among males,with reductions of 17.54％and 24.84％in females and 4.14％and 16.61％in males,respectively.APC analysis showed that the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer both increased with age.The incidence rate peaked in the 85-to 89-year-old age group in the overall population and females,and in the 90-to 94-year-old age group in males.The mortality rate peaked in the 90-to 94-year-old age group in the overall population,maIes,and females.Period effects showed overall fluctuating downward trends in the rate ratios(RRs)of liver cancer incidence and mortality in the overall population,males,and females,with more pronounced declines in females.Birth cohort effects also showed overall fluctuating downward trends in the RRs of incidence and mortality across different sex groups,with the largest declines observed in females.Conclusions From 1992 to 2021,the burden of liver cancer in China generally declined,yet remaining substantial in the context of population aging.Future interventions targeting high-risk populations especially elder males and the promotion of hepatitis B prevention and control,early screening and diagnosis,and precision treatment should be strengthened to decrease the incidence and mortality rates of liver cancer.关键词
肝癌/发病/死亡/年龄-时期-队列模型Key words
liver cancer/incidence/mortality/age-period-cohort model
