中国防汛抗旱2026，Vol.36Issue(8)：9-16,8.DOI:10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2026357
基于山洪泥石流耦合模型的区域淹没风险研究
Research on regional inundation risk based on a coupled flash flood and debris flow model
摘要
Abstract
In mountainous areas under extreme rainstorm scenarios,the concurrent occurrence of flash floods and debris flows triggers disaster chain effects.Traditional single hydrological-hydrodynamic models often underestimate inundation risks due to their neglect of terrain alterations.Taking Changping District,Beijing,as the study area,this paper constructs a coupled simulation model for the flash flood-debris flow disaster chain based on TRIGRS,MASSFLOW,and VMR-TRITON.First,the applicability of the VMR-TRITON model in Changping District was validated using the flash flood event of August 9,2024.Second,debris-flow-induced terrain deformation is incorporated into the hydrodynamic model by dynamically updating terrain elevation over time.Finally,the model was verified using Hantai Village,a severely affected area during the"23·7"catastrophic rainstorm.The results indicate that the average relative simulation error of the VMR-TRITON model in Changping District is approximately 18.98%,demonstrating good applicability.Compared with simulation results that ignore channel deposition,the coupled flash flood-debris flow model improved the relative error in the simulated inundation area of Hantai Village from-52.66%to-22.98%,significantly enhancing accuracy.This study confirms the necessity of considering debris flow silting effects in simulations and provides a scientific basis for the refined defense against flash flood disasters.关键词
山洪灾害/淹没模拟/山洪泥石流耦合模型/北京市Key words
flash flood disaster/inundation simulation/coupled flash flood-debris flow model/Beijing City分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
谈广,郑凡东,张旭旻,周星,卢亚静,于磊,李永坤..基于山洪泥石流耦合模型的区域淹没风险研究[J].中国防汛抗旱,2026,36(8):9-16,8.基金项目
北京市科技计划项目(Z251100004525022) （Z251100004525022）
国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3012405). （2024YFC3012405）
