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基于手机信令数据的北京"23·7"特大暴雨事件城市出行影响评估

林天舒 柳鹏 李瑞栋 倪广恒 李永坤

中国防汛抗旱2026,Vol.36Issue(8):48-54,7.
中国防汛抗旱2026,Vol.36Issue(8):48-54,7.DOI:10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2026349

基于手机信令数据的北京"23·7"特大暴雨事件城市出行影响评估

Assessment of the impacts of the Beijing"23·7"extreme rainstorm event on urban mobility based on mobile phone signaling data

林天舒 1柳鹏 2李瑞栋 1倪广恒 1李永坤3

作者信息

  • 1. 清华大学水利水电工程系,北京 100084||清华大学水圈科学与水利工程全国重点实验室,北京 100084
  • 2. 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院,南京 210029
  • 3. 清华大学水利水电工程系,北京 100084||北京市水科学技术研究院,北京 100048
  • 折叠

摘要

Abstract

Extreme rainstorm and flood events can significantly affect urban operational efficiency by disrupting residents,travel behavior.In order to accurately describe the characteristics of urban travel damage under the influence of heavy rainfall,take the"23·7"extremely heavy rainstorm event in Beijing as an example,and integrates high-resolution quantitative precipitation estimation products with origin-destination data derived from mobile phone signaling.Grid-scale indicators of travel-volume loss rate and disruption duration were developed to quantitatively analyze the differences in population travel response under different functional zones,rainfall levels,and intraday time periods.The results show that the rainstorm event significantly reduced total travel volumes across all functional zones,while the basic diurnal rhythm of"morning peak-daytime decline-evening peak"remained unchanged.Residential areas exhibited the largest absolute loss,followed by business office areas and parks/greenspaces,indicating that both commuting activities and leisure-recreation trips were markedly suppressed.Further analysis of mobility loss characteristics shows that commercial areas had the highest loss rate and the longest disruption duration,while residential,educational,and medical areas also experienced relatively high levels of mobility disruption.The impacts of different rainstorm levels on mobility displayed nonlinear characteristics.Residential and business office areas were particularly sensitive to rainfall disturbance,and concentrated travel during morning and evening peaks amplified the suppressive effect of rainfall on human mobility.These findings provide scientific support for spatially and temporally differentiated traffic management,public service guarantee,and urban resilience enhancement under extreme rainstorm scenarios.

关键词

城市出行量/手机信令/功能分区/降雨预警/"23·7"特大暴雨

Key words

urban mobility/mobile phone signaling/functional zones/rainfall warning/"23·7"extreme rainstorm event

分类

建筑与水利

引用本文复制引用

林天舒,柳鹏,李瑞栋,倪广恒,李永坤..基于手机信令数据的北京"23·7"特大暴雨事件城市出行影响评估[J].中国防汛抗旱,2026,36(8):48-54,7.

基金项目

甘肃省科技重大专项计划(22ZD6WA043). (22ZD6WA043)

中国防汛抗旱

1673-9264

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