地质通报2026，Vol.45Issue(7)：1299-1312,14.DOI:10.12097/gbc.2024.07.016
金沙江上游敏都对岸滑坡遥感调查与堵江溃决模拟
Remote sensing investigation and simulation of landslide-induced river blocking and dam-break flood on the opposite bank of Mindu in the upper Jinsha River
摘要
Abstract
This paper is the result of landslide remote sensing investigation and numerical simulation.[Objective]This study aims to reveal the overall instability risk of the landslide on the opposite bank of Mindu in the upper Jinsha River,attributed to its poor slope integrity and pronounced deformation,and to assess the potential chain of landslide,river blocking,dam-break flood,as well as its impacts on major engineering works and downstream safety.[Methods]A combined approach of dynamic monitoring using multi-source,multi-temporal remote sensing imagery and numerical simulation was employed to systematically analyze the deformation characteristics and stability of the landslide.The processes of river blocking and dam-break flood under both natural and heavy rainfall conditions were simulated.[Results]The landslide has a volume of approximately 682.5×104 m3,classifying it as a large-scale landslide.The sliding mass consists of debris-filled soil,while the sliding bed is composed of mica-quartz schist.Deformation can be traced back to 1965,spanning nearly 60 years,and the landslide is currently in a creep-sliding deformation stage.The failure mode is a retrogressive progressive failure,and the landslide can be divided into two deformation zones.Under natural conditions,Zone I is in an unstable state,while Zone II ranges from unstable to basically stable.Simulations indicate that under natural conditions,failure of Zone I would result in a sliding mass movement duration of approximately 50 s with a maximum velocity of about 55 m/s,forming a landslide dam with an estimated height of 77 m and a dammed lake capacity of approximately 1.17×108 m3.The resulting flood peak discharge at the Lawa hydropower station dam site would be about 1875 m3/s,with a maximum flood crest height of approximately 8 m.Under heavy rainfall conditions,the entire landslide would become unstable,with an estimated dam height of 88 m and a lake capacity of 1.48×108 m3.The flood peak discharge at the Lawa dam site would reach about 2690 m3/s,with a maximum flood crest height of about 11 m.[Conclusions]The landslide poses a high river blocking risk upon failure.It is recommended to employ an integrated space-air-ground monitoring system for continuous tracking,so as to ensure the safe construction of major engineering projects in the upper Jinsha River and to safeguard the transportation infrastructure along the river as well as the safety of local communities and property.关键词
敏都对岸滑坡/数值模拟/堵江溃决/发育特征/遥感调查/金沙江上游Key words
landslide on the opposite bank of Mindu/numerical simulation/river blocking and dam-break flood/development characteristics/remote sensing inverstigation/in the upper Jinsha River分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘文,王猛,王军,余天彬,董继红,宋班,黄细超..金沙江上游敏都对岸滑坡遥感调查与堵江溃决模拟[J].地质通报,2026,45(7):1299-1312,14.基金项目
四川省地质调查研究院项目《四川省重大滑坡灾害隐患综合遥感识别监测应用关键技术研究》(编号:SCIGS-CZDXM-2024006)、四川省自然资源厅项目《四川省科技赋能防灾减灾救灾揭榜挂帅项目》(编号:2025YFN0004)、自然资源部项目《部省合作试点四川省滑坡灾害隐患遥感智能防控体系研究》(编号:SCDZRS-2023) Supported by the Project of Sichuan Institute of Geological Survey(No.SCIGS-CZDXM-2024006),the Open Competition Program of the Department of Natural Resources of Sichuan Province(No.2025YFN0004),and the Provincial-Ministry Cooperative Pilot Project of the Ministry of Natural Resources(No.SCDZRS-2023) （编号:SCIGS-CZDXM-2024006）
