健康发展与政策研究2026，Vol.29Issue(3)：452-460,9.DOI:10.12458/HDPR.202509045
2013-2022年新疆卫生总费用结构、影响因素及趋势预测分析
Analysis of the structure,influencing factors,and trend forecast of total health expenditure in Xinjiang from 2013 to 2022
摘要
Abstract
Objective This study aims to analyze the growth trend and structural characteristics of total health expenditure in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region from 2013 to 2022,and to explore the factors influencing this growth and their degree of association,with a view to optimizing the financing structure and providing a basis for effectively controlling the growth of health expenditure.Methods Data on Xinjiang's total health expenditure were obtained from 2013 to 2022,along with the influencing factors of this health expenditure.Structural variation analysis was used to evaluate changes in the composition of health expenditure,and grey relational analysis was applied to identify the main influencing factors.A GM(1,1)model was then established to forecast the trends of total health expenditure and GDP in Xinjiang from 2023 to 2027.Results From 2013 to 2022,the average annual growth rate of total health expenditure in Xinjiang was 11.13%.The share of out-of-pocket(OOP)showed an overall declining trend,with a structural change value of-6.44%.While the shares of government health expenditure and social health expenditure showed increasing trends,with structural change values of 5.85%and 0.59%,respectively together indicating a clear optimization of the health financing structure.The per capita disposable income of rural residents,per capita GDP,per capita disposable income of urban residents,and per capita hospitalization expenses ranked as the top four factors most closely associated with Xinjiang's total health expenditure,with correlation coefficients of 0.649 9,0.633 7,0.633 2,and 0.632 9,respectively.The GM(1,1)model provided a good fit to the data and was identified as the optimal model.Total health expenditure was projected to increase to 291.337 billion CNY by 2027,with the proportion of health expenditure to GDP reaching 10.82%.Conclusions The growth of total health expenditure in Xinjiang has been reasonable,with continued optimization of its structure,although sustainability challenges remain.It is recommended that relevant departments formulate targeted measures addressing the main influencing factors,and improve health financing policies by establishing a financing mechanism tailored to the characteristics of frontier regions,deepening medical reform to strengthen cost control,and establishing a sustainable monitoring system.关键词
卫生总费用/结构变动度/灰色关联度分析/影响因素/GM(1,1)预测Key words
total health expenditure/structural variation/gray relational analysis/influencing factors/GM(1,1)prediction分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
于晶尧,周思颖,孔都孜·谢尔扎提,杨林洲,马国芳..2013-2022年新疆卫生总费用结构、影响因素及趋势预测分析[J].健康发展与政策研究,2026,29(3):452-460,9.基金项目
国家卫生健康委能力建设和继续教育中心现代医院管理研究课题(15DG2024004-1) （15DG2024004-1）
新疆医科大学医学科学研究所开放课题资助项目(YXYJ20230304) （YXYJ20230304）
