中国渔业经济2026，Vol.44Issue(8)：18-28,11.
公众负面情绪对水产品价格的时变影响分析
Time-varying effects of public negative sentiment on aquatic product prices:a case study of Japan's nuclear-contaminated water discharge incident
谭江瑶 1殷文伟1
作者信息
- 1. 浙江海洋大学经济与管理学院,浙江舟山 316022
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
The discharge of nuclear-contaminated water from Japan has exerted a notably adverse impact on public sentiment,triggering a crisis of confidence in aquatic products and consequently exerting a measurable influence on their market prices.This study employs microblog text mining techniques and sentiment analysis to quantify the public's negative emotions arising from Japan's nuclear-contaminated water release,and investigates the time-varying effects of these sentiments on aquatic product prices using a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive(T VP-VAR)model.The findings reveal that the impact of public negative sentiment on aquatic product prices exhibits significant time-varying characteristics,lag effects,and lifecycle patterns.The influence peaks during the waning phase of the nuclear-contaminated water discharge incident while being minimal in the latent phase.Furthermore,differential effects are observed between marine and freshwater products:marine product prices demonstrate negative correlations,whereas freshwater products,serving as substitutes,show positive price responses,with the latter exhibiting greater intensity and faster reaction speeds to public sentiment fluctuations.关键词
水产品价格/负面情绪/情感分析/TVP-VAR模型Key words
aquatic product price/negative sentiment/sentiment analysis/TVP-VAR Model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
谭江瑶,殷文伟..公众负面情绪对水产品价格的时变影响分析[J].中国渔业经济,2026,44(8):18-28,11.
