灾害学2026，Vol.41Issue(4)：95-102,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2026.04.010
泥石流灾害胁迫下贺兰山东麓生态系统潜在损失风险评估
Assessment of Potential Loss Risk of Ecosystems in the Eastern Foothills of Helan Mountain under the Stress of Debris Flow Disasters
摘要
Abstract
Assessing the potential loss risk of ecosystems under the threat of regional natural disasters is a crucial foundation for optimizing ecological security patterns and formulating risk management strategies.This study focuses on the eastern foothills of Helan Mountain as the research area.To assess debris flow disaster haz-ard,an evaluation index system is constructed based on eight factors:slope,topographic wetness index,surface cutting depth,earthquake kernel density,geological time,monthly average precipitation from April to October,distance to river,and fractional vegetation cover.A coupled model combining the Certain Factor(CF)model and the Logistic Regression(LR)model is applied to conduct the debris flow disaster hazard assessment for the study area.Meanwhile,the Ecosystem Service Value(ESV)of the study area is evaluated based on equivalent factor method,incorporating eleven service types such as food production,material production,water resource supply,gas regulation,climate regulation,environmental purification,hydrological regulation,soil conservation,maintaining nutrient cycling,biological diversity,aesthetic landscape.By spatially overlaying the debris flow di-saster hazard and ESV assessment results,the potential ecological loss risk across the study area is identified.The results indicate that there is a significant spatial variation in the potential loss risk of the ecosystem in the study area.The high-risk zones are highly coupled with the high-hazard zones,which are concentrated in the northern regions of Hebin,Shitanjing,and Baijigou Subdistrict Offices.This region accounts for 78.10%of the disaster points while covering 34.32%of the total area.There is a spatial mismatch between the distribution of ecosys-tem service value and the occurrence of disasters,exhibiting two patterns of vulnerability.The moderate-ESV zones account for 83.85%of the total area,contribute 76.07%of the total ecosystem service value,and contain 86.67%of the disaster points,facing a relatively severe threat of ecosystem service value loss.In contrast,the high-ESV zones account for only 8.83%of the total area,with fewer disaster points,yet the average potential loss reach as high as 2.51×108 yuan per disaster point,reflecting significant hidden ecological vulnerability.The re-search findings can offer scientific support for maintaining ecological security and formulating differentiated risk prevention and control strategies in the ecologically fragile areas of Northwest China.关键词
泥石流危险性/生态系统服务价值/生态系统潜在损失风险/贺兰山东麓Key words
debris flow hazard/ecosystem service value(ESV)/ecological risk/the eastern foothills of Helan Mountains分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
庙成,邱锦安,唐波..泥石流灾害胁迫下贺兰山东麓生态系统潜在损失风险评估[J].灾害学,2026,41(4):95-102,8.基金项目
宁夏重点研发计划项目引才专项"黄土滑坡灾害高危险区生态环境耦合协同机制研究—以宁夏南部丘陵区为例"(2025BEH04099) （2025BEH04099）
宁夏自然科学基金项目"基于生态系统服务价值损失评估的贺兰山东麓泥石流灾害可接受生态风险阈值研究","建筑安全性视角下泥石流灾害可接受风险阈值研究"(2026AAC030904,2024AAC03302) （2026AAC030904,2024AAC03302）
宁夏高等学校科学研究项目"黄土滑坡灾害约束下的宁南丘陵区生态安全测度研究"(NYG2024179) （NYG2024179）
宁夏优秀人才支持计划资助(2021年第六批宁夏回族自治区青年科技人才托举工程) （2021年第六批宁夏回族自治区青年科技人才托举工程）
