灾害学2026，Vol.41Issue(4)：209-217,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-811X.2026.04.022
基于兵棋推演的危险化学品事故应急疏散策略评估研究
Wargaming-Based Study on Emergency Evacuation Strategy Evaluation of Hazardous Chemical Accidents
摘要
Abstract
Traditional studies on emergency evacuation during hazardous chemical accidents predominantly focus on the outcomes of optimal strategies,lacking a description of the strategic decision-making process,mak-ing it difficult to capture the complete process of strategy selection and adjustment.To address the challenges of strategy evaluation and optimization in emergency evacuation during hazardous chemical accidents,an emergen-cy evacuation wargaming model consisting of three core elements—map,pieces,and rules—is developed based on wargaming principles.This model enables the dynamic and quantitative simulation of the entire process of ac-cident evolution and emergency response.Using the"8·12"Tianjin Port explosion as a case study,the temporal mismatch between personnel arrivals and emergency resource supply revealed during the simulation is identified and resolved in the research through multi-strategy evaluation and optimization.Consequently,the temporal cou-pling of safe personnel evacuation and timely emergency resource supply at all shelters is achieved.A sensitivity analysis of two key parameters—vehicle dispatch capacity per round and shelter reception capacity per round—demonstrates that the model remains robust under perturbations of key parameters,aligning with the supply-demand balance laws of emergency evacuation.Specifically,the system achieves optimal evacuation efficiency when in a state of supply-demand equilibrium,revealing the nonlinear relationship between emergency resource investment and evacuation efficiency.By establishing a closed-loop"simulation-evaluation-optimization-resimulation"mechanism,a transition is achieved in this study from"methodological validation"to"strategy op-timization,"providing a dynamic optimization path for emergency decision-making.Furthermore,utilizing its modular structure,the developed wargaming model can be rapidly adapted to various disaster emergency evacua-tion scenarios by updating map layers,adjusting piece attributes,and modifying rule parameters according to dif-ferent disaster evolution mechanisms,providing a novel technical approach and decision support for emergency plan evaluation and resource scheduling under complex disaster scenarios.关键词
危险化学品事故/应急疏散/兵棋推演/资源调度/时序耦合/策略优化Key words
hazardous chemical accident/emergency evacuation/wargaming/resource dispatch/temporal coupling/strategy optimization分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
雷权,吕伟,李迪..基于兵棋推演的危险化学品事故应急疏散策略评估研究[J].灾害学,2026,41(4):209-217,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目"面向重灾应对的城市大尺度疏散转移与避难安置时空建模研究"(52072286) （52072286）
