干旱区资源与环境2026，Vol.40Issue(7)：32-44,13.DOI:10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2026.112
农业社会化服务创新试点政策能激励粮食生产吗
Can the pilot policies for agricultural socialized service innovation incentivize grain production?A causal inference based on county-level quasi-natural experiments and double machine learning
摘要
Abstract
Ensuring national food security is confronted with the practical challenge of"who will farm the land",and agricultural socialized services are regarded as the key to solving this problem.The agricultural socialized service innovation pilot policy initiated by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in 2021 provides a quasi-natural experimental scenario for evaluating the effectiveness of the service policy.Aiming to assess the incentive effect,dynamic trajectory,and mechanism of this policy on county-level grain production,this study takes the 2021 pilot policy as a quasi-natural experiment,uses a double difference model and double machine learning methods for causal inference based on panel data from 200 counties from 2015 to 2023.According to the principles of geographical proximity,similar agricultural ecology,and similar economic development levels,100 pilot counties are matched with 100 non-pilot counties to alleviate systematic errors and selection biases.The study finds that:1)The agricultural socialized service innovation pilot policy significantly promotes county-level grain production,and this conclusion remains valid after robustness tests.2)The policy effect shows a short-term impulse characteristic,being significant in the year of implementation but not in subsequent years,indicating that the incentive mechanism of the policy is not yet stable.3)Heterogeneity analysis shows that the policy effect is the most significant in medium-income regions,presenting an inverted U-shaped curve,stronger in non-grain-producing provinces than in grain-producing provinces,and significant in humid and semi-humid regions but not in arid and semi-arid regions.4)Mechanism tests reveal that the production increase effect mainly relies on the scale expansion path,while the efficiency expansion path has not been discovered.These findings suggest that the current pilot policy still mainly focuses on labor-replacement services,and the effects of technology integration and knowledge spillover have not been fully released.It is recommended to promote the transformation of service connotations from scale expansion to efficiency improvement,implement differentiated regional support policies,and establish a market-oriented long-term mechanism to consolidate the foundation of food security.关键词
粮食生产/政策激励效应/双重差分模型/双重机器学习Key words
grain production/policy incentive effect/double difference model/double machine learning分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
邓国权,熊媛媛,余国新,朱娜..农业社会化服务创新试点政策能激励粮食生产吗[J].干旱区资源与环境,2026,40(7):32-44,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(72163032)资助. （72163032）
