航空学报2026，Vol.47Issue(14)：85-97,13.DOI:10.7527/S1000-6893.2025.32918
高维高可靠场景下广义失效概率函数估计的渐进分层重要抽样方法
A progressive stratified importance sampling method for estimating generalized failure probability function in high-dimensional and high-reliability scenarios
摘要
Abstract
Analyzing generalized failure probability function considering probabilistic inputs and fuzzy state is crucial for capturing how variations in distribution parameters within their design regions affect structural safety levels.The exist-ing single-loop importance sampling method can avoid the highly time-consuming problem resulting from redundant re-liability analysis and the large sample pool in high reliability requirements for direct double-loop Monte Carlo method.However,this method still cannot handle the time-consuming issues of constructing unified importance sampling den-sity and low sampling efficiency.To address this,this paper constructs an explicit and easy to sample expression of the unified importance sampling density and proposes its progressive stratification strategy,which render the impor-tance samples of constructing unified importance sampling density cover the regions with higher contribution to gener-alized failure probability,and enhance the computational efficiency by reducing the estimate variance.Compared to the existing single-loop importance sampling density method,the main innovation of the proposed method is the pro-gressive stratification strategy adopted when constructing unified importance sampling density,which alleviates the op-timization requirement with high additional computational cost,thus enhancing the efficiency of exploring target fuzzy failure domain to construct unified importance sampling density and estimate the generalized failure probability function in high-dimensional and high-reliability scenarios.This superiority is fully validated by the examples presented in this paper.关键词
广义失效概率函数/模糊状态/分层策略/重要抽样法/单层分析框架Key words
generalized failure probability function/fuzzy state/stratification strategy/importance sampling method/single-loop analysis framework分类
航空航天引用本文复制引用
吴晓敏,吕震宙..高维高可靠场景下广义失效概率函数估计的渐进分层重要抽样方法[J].航空学报,2026,47(14):85-97,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(12572141,12272300) （12572141,12272300）
西北工业大学"1到0"专项博士创新基金(ZX2025002) National Natural Science Foundation of China(12572141,12272300) （ZX2025002）
Innovation Foundation for 1 to 0 Specialized Doctor of Northwestern Polytechnical University(ZX2025002) （ZX2025002）
