华南理工大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.54Issue(8)：74-83,10.DOI:10.12141/j.issn.1000-565X.250341
基于非参数误差建模的无人机空中风险实时量化评估
Real-Time Quantitative Assessment of UAV Air Risks Based on Nonparametric Error Modeling
摘要
Abstract
The mixed operation of large unmanned aerial vehicles(UAVs)and manned aircraft in complex airspace poses a high collision risk,where the accuracy and real-time performance of risk assessment directly affect airspace safety supervision and operational decision-making.To address the limitations of traditional collision probability models,which inadequately characterize aircraft navigation errors and struggle to adapt to complex dynamic opera-tional environments,this paper proposes a real-time collision probability calculation model based on historical tra-jectory data and nonparametric error modeling.To address the local anomaly problem caused by the discontinuity of trajectory data,a navigation error calculation method based on B-spline clustering fitting was constructed.The absolute errors under different smoothing factors were compared,and the optimal smoothing factor was determined through the Wilcoxon test to resolve local anomalies caused by overfitting.Kernel density estimation was employed for nonparametric modeling of navigation errors,breaking through the inherent Laplace distribution assumption of traditional models,and an analytical model capable of estimating collision probability at any given time was estab-lished.To verify the reliability of the proposed model,Monte Carlo simulations were conducted using operational data from real-world scenarios,and the model calculation results were systematically compared with ground-truth values.The results show that,compared with the double-exponential distribution model,the kernel density estima-tion model improves the calculation accuracy by 36.85%,with smaller error fluctuations across different scenarios.Furthermore,sensitivity analysis was conducted using the random forest algorithm,identifying relative distance as the dominant factor influencing risk.The research findings can provide theoretical support and methodological reference for risk monitoring and operational strategy optimization in complex airspace.关键词
无人机/碰撞风险/实时量化评估/核密度估计/蒙特卡洛仿真Key words
UAV/collision risk/real-time quantitative assessment/kernel density estimation/Monte Carlo simulation分类
航空航天引用本文复制引用
李诚龙,岳伊杨,张学军,郑远,罗郁葱,卫鹏..基于非参数误差建模的无人机空中风险实时量化评估[J].华南理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,54(8):74-83,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(52502410,U2333214) （52502410,U2333214）
民航局安全能力建设项目(MHAQ2025020) （MHAQ2025020）
中国民用航空飞行学院中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(25CAFUC03101) Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(52502410,U2333214) （25CAFUC03101）
