华中科技大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.54Issue(7)：13-19,103,8.DOI:10.13245/j.hust.260103
径流随机性的物理机制分析
Physical mechanism analysis of runoff stochasticity
张勇传 1黎育红 1李超顺 1陈璐 1朱双1
作者信息
- 1. 华中科技大学水利水电科学研究院,湖北武汉 430074||华中科技大学土木与水利工程学院,湖北武汉 430074
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Based on the fractal topology structure of digital watersheds,the fractal network spectral gap theory and heterogeneous mean first pass time(MFPT)scaling law were introduced to analyze the convergence characteristics and evolution mechanism of non-stationary runoff stochastic processes.A dynamic transition evolution model of runoff state was constructed by integrating fuzzy Markov chain and non-stationary hidden Markov polynomial regression,and a complete parameter estimation and training verification method was established.On this basis,from the dual perspectives of information geometry and asymptotic analysis,the physical consistency and statistical superiority of the variational stability principle(VSP)over the MSE criterion were rigorously proven.A complete mechanism chain was constructed from the fractal structure of the watershed,nonlinear stochastic processes to the quantification of forecast uncertainty,forming a fractal stochastic unified theoretical system for runoff forecasting.The paradigm shift of runoff forecasting from black box fitting to white box mechanism analysis was achieved,providing a mathematical theoretical basis and methodological support for the adaptive regulation of watershed water resources systems under the background of climate change.关键词
径流随机性/谱间隙/平均首次通过时间/非平稳隐马尔可夫过程/变差稳定性原理/物理机理驱动Key words
runoff stochasticity/spectral gap/mean first passage time(MFPT)/non-stationary hidden Markov process/variation stability principle/physical mechanism-driven分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
张勇传,黎育红,李超顺,陈璐,朱双..径流随机性的物理机制分析[J].华中科技大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,54(7):13-19,103,8.
