集美大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.31Issue(4)：449-461,13.DOI:10.19715/j.jmuzr.2026.04.06
基于FMEA-FBWM-RBN的中国粮食进出口海运风险评估
Maritime Risk Assessment of China's Grain Import-Export Based on FMEA-FBWM-RBN
摘要
Abstract
This study proposes an integrated risk-assessment framework based on FMEA-FBWM-RBN to address multi-source uncertainties in China's seaborne grain import-export supply chain,enabling key-node risk identification,consistency-aligned weighting,and scenario-based inference to assist resilience building and poli-cy preparedness.It systematically identify 19 failure modes across five dimensions,namely,extreme weather,traffic congestion,corridor security,politics&law,and cargo&ships;use the fuzzy best-worst method(FB-WM)to aggregate expert judgments and handle subjectivity and vagueness,and implement causal propagation and scenario inference via a risk Bayesian network(RBN)in GeNIe.Empirical analysis yields the crisp risk values(CV)for each failure mode and category,from which the key drivers affecting grain maritime safety are identified,including the nature of grain,policy adjustments in canals and straits,as well as export country poli-cy restrictions and bans,etc.Sensitivity analysis further validates the model's robustness and interpretability.关键词
粮食/海运风险/风险评估/多属性决策/失效模式与影响分析方法/模糊最佳-最差方法/贝叶斯网络Key words
grain:maritime risk/risk assessment/multi-criteria decision-making/failure modes and effects analysis(FMEA)/fuzzy best-worst method(FBWM)/Bayesian network分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
宋云婷,曲卓然,付蔷..基于FMEA-FBWM-RBN的中国粮食进出口海运风险评估[J].集美大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,31(4):449-461,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(72404050) （72404050）
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(24YJC630180) （24YJC630180）
